Crude Tumbles as OPEC and Demand Erode Prices

Crude oil prices tumbled nearly 8% below $68 per barrel touching a 4-year low but rebounded slightly trading up to $69.20. OPEC’s was unwilling to cut production levels at their meeting in Vienna which resulted in a sharp selloff. This said, prices remain under pressure, with the ultimate bottom for crude at lower levels.

U.S. inventories continue to move higher. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 383.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week, but are in the lower half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are near the lower limit of the average range for this time of year.

On the demand front, total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels per day, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, gasoline demand averaged about 9.2 million barrels per day, up by 1.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand averaged over 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 7.8% from the same period last year.

The technical picture on WTI crude oil is negative as crude moves through short term support levels and is likely to target the June 2009 lows at $58. Daily momentum has turned negative with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generating a sell signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the 9-day moving average of the spread. The index moved from positive to negative territory confirming the sell signal. The one caveat is that the RSI (relative strength index) is printing a reading of 24, which is well below the oversold trigger level of 30 and could foreshadow a correction.

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