FOMC minutes in focus. Trade war worries ease – Intraday analysis 11-04-2018

Intraday analysis 11-04-2018 – Daily Forex Market Preview

The markets were buoyant yesterday after the speech by Chinese Premier Xi struck a positive tone among investors. Xi promised to reform China’s markets including opening the automobile and insurance sector for foreign investors who could claim a majority stake. Xi’s speech eased concerns about a looming trade war.

On the economic front, data included the French industrial production figures which rose just 1.2% on the month, missing estimates of 1.5%. In the U.S. the producer prices index saw a better than expected print. Both headline and core PPI rise 0.3% on the month beating estimates.

Looking ahead, investors will be focusing on the FOMC meeting minutes that will be released today. The minutes cover the Fed’s central bank monetary policy meeting held in March where interest rates were hiked by 25 basis points.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, the U.S. monthly consumer price index data will be coming out. Economists forecast that the headline CPI was unchanged on the month in March while core CPI picked up 0.2%, rising at the same pace as the month before.

The UK’s manufacturing production data will be coming out today where estimates show a 0.2% increase on the month, slightly higher from 0.1% previously. Construction output and industrial production figures are also expected to be released today.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.2362): The EURUSD currency pair extended gains for the third consecutive day, rising to a fresh two week high. Price action is likely to continue to the upside extending the gains toward the resistance level seen at 1.2385. A retest of this resistance level is likely to keep price action range bound within the lower support level of 1.2300. We therefore expect to see the EURUSD maintain a sideways range in the near term.

GBPUSD intra-day analysis

GBPUSD (1.4179): The GBPUSD was seen breaking past the resistance level at 1.4162. Further gains are likely to test the March 28 highs of around 1.4191. There is a risk for GBPUSD to give up the gains in the near term and price action is likely to slip back below the 1.4162 level. The lower support at 1.4093 could stem the declines in the near term. To the upside, price action will need to establish strong support at the 1.4162 level to confirm further upside in price.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

XAUUSD (1341.40): Gold prices edged higher on the day breaking above the 1336 handle. We expect the upside momentum to continue with the risk of gold prices falling back to 1336 handle to establish support. A rebound off this level will confirm the upside bias in gold prices. The next target comes in at 1344 level and in the near-term gold prices could pull back from the current highs and maintain a sideways range.

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