Intraday Analysis 12th June 2018

The U.S. dollar remained mixed across the board as the currency was seen weakening across most of the risk currencies. Economic data was limited for the U.S. dollar.

Data from the UK showed that manufacturing production declined 1.4% on the month. This was worse than expected as the economists forecast a 0.3% increase.

UK’s construction output was seen rising 0.5% following a 2.3% decline the month before. Economists forecast a 2.4% increase. The British pound was rather muted to the report.

Looking ahead, the economic data today will see the release of the UK’s labor market data. Economists forecast that the UK’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% on the three months ending May. Average earnings are expected to rise at a slower pace of 2.5% on an annualized basis, down from 2.6% increase registered the three months before.

The NY trading session will see the release of the U.S. inflation data. Forecasts point to a 0.2% increase in inflation on a month over month basis, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.1% on the month. Both headline and core inflation rate are forecast to rise at the same pace as the month before.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

eurusd intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1765): The EURUSD currency pair was seen trading subdued for the past three daily sessions following the break out above the resistance level of 1.1730. In the near term, we expect price action to remain subdued while a firmer retest of the breached resistance at 1.1730 turns to support. Establishing support at this level could signal a potential rebound in prices. However, since the EURUSD is trading sideways within 1.1846 and 1.1730, a break out from this range could establish the short term trend. To the downside, declines could stall at the support level of 1.1610 – 1.1577 level, while to the upside, a rally above 1.1846 – 1.1824 could give way for further gains to 1.2232.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

usdjpy intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.28): The USDJPY currency pair posted strong gains following the brief decline to the support level at 109.57 – 109.43 level. The current rally is expected to push the currency pair to highs close to 110.62 resistance level. A retest of resistance at this level could signal a possible decline back to 109.57 – 109.43 region. However, in case of a breakout above 110.62, then further gains could be expected that could push the currency pair to test the 111.00 level testing the previous highs from May 2018.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

xauusd intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1297.51): Gold prices have maintained their sideways range for nearly two weeks so far. Price action has failed to make a convincing breakout above 1304 – 1301 level of resistance. This is likely to signal that the sideways range could continue for the near term. The downside test toward 1282 remains a possibility unless gold prices can breakout above the resistance level. A retest of 1325 level where resistance is pending a retest is likely to the upside.

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About the Author
“John Benjamin Resident Analyst at Orbex. John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.”
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