Daily Forex Market Preview, 13/03/2018
Lack of fundamentals on a quiet trading day left the U.S. dollar to trade flat following Friday’s decline. However, the USD was seen trading mixed across the board especially with the commodities turning weaker on the day.
Looking ahead, the inflation data coming out today will be a major event to watch with both headline and core inflation rate expected to rise at a slower pace compared to January’s solid gains. On an annual basis, headline CPI is expected to rise slightly while core CPI is expected to remain flat at a pace of 1.8%.
Elsewhere, the BoC Governor Poloz is expected to speak later in the afternoon followed by second tier data from Japan.
EURUSD intra-day analysis
EURUSD (1.2325): The EURUSD was see trading with Friday’s range with price action forming an inside bar. The breakout from the inside bar could potentially indicate the near term bias. We expect to see EURUSD continuing to push lower following the consolidation at the resistance level at 1.2333 – 1.2635. The downside target towards 1.2090 remains in play as long as the resistance level holds the gains in the near term. A convincing close above the resistance level could shift the bias to the upside with the common currency likely to target 1.2443.
GBPUSD intra-day analysis
GBPUSD (1.3889): The British pound was seen closing near the resistance level of 1.3902 on Monday and a bearish close today could see price action resuming the decline toward 1.3530. On the 4-hour chart we however see that the price action has consolidated into an ascending triangle pattern. Therefore, a potential breakout above the resistance level at 1.3902 could push the GBPUSD targeting 1.4070 level which would mark the previous high that was formed in the symmetrical triangle pattern.
XAUUSD intra-day analysis
XAUUSD (1318.93): Gold prices once again closed with a doji pattern on Monday but price action was confined to last Friday’s range. We expect a downside breakout in price which could see gold prices testing the previous lows around 1307 – 1303 region to establish support at this level. In the event that gold prices post further declines, a retest of the lower support at 1282 – 1274 could be in play.
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