Intraday Analysis 17th July 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen trading mixed on Monday. Economic data was supportive of the greenback. The U.S. retail sales report showed that headline retail sales increased 0.5% on the month while core retail sales rose 0.4%.

The U.S. Empire State Manufacturing index was seen rising to 22.6 on the index, up from 20.3 which was forecast but lower than 25.0 from the previous report.

In the overnight trading session, the quarterly inflation report from New Zealand showed that consumer prices advanced at a pace of 1.5% annually. On a quarterly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4% missing estimates of a 0.5% increase.

Looking ahead, the BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak today. His speech comes ahead of the monthly labor market report. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2% while wage growth is forecast to rise at a steady pace of 2.5%.

The NY trading session will see the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress. Investors will be looking to see if the Fed Chair maintains his hawkish views on the economy. The U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization rate is also expected to be released.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

forex eur/usd

EURUSD (1.1719): The euro was seen extending the gains on Monday against the U.S. dollar. Despite a strong patch of economic releases, the euro managed to rise to intraday highs of 1.1725. Price action has now cleared the support/resistance level of 1.1686. This is expected to keep the bias to the upside. Any dips are likely to stall back near the 1.1686 level. The currency pair is now likely to attempt to rally toward the next main resistance level at 1.1960 – 1.1920 level.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

forex  usdjpy

USDJPY (112.35): The USDJPY currency pair was seen testing the price level near 112.28. The 4-hour Stochastics is pointing to a hidden bullish divergence. However, failure to break past the previous highs established at 112.71 could however signal a potential move to the downside. The break down below 112.28 could trigger further declines to 111.13 level.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

forex xau/usd

XAUUSD (1241.67): Gold prices continue to consolidate below 1242.25 level of support. With the currency pair failing to make fresh lows, price action is likely poised for an upside breakout. The price level of 1247 – 1242.25 could potentially offer some short-term resistance. However, a breakout above this region could trigger further gains that could push gold prices to test the 1258.21 level in the next leg to the upside.

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About the Author
“John Benjamin Resident Analyst at Orbex. John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.”
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