Intraday analysis 19-02-2018 – Daily Forex Market Preview
The U.S. dollar posted a rebound on Friday after briefly slipping sending most of the other major currencies to post fresh highs. However, the declines were short lived as the dollar managed to reverse the levels. The FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday and the markets are anticipating that the Fed could hike rates as early as March.
On the economic front, data from the UK showed that retail sales rose only 0.1% on the month missing estimates of a 0.5% increase. The previous month’s data was revised slightly higher to show a 1.4% decline. Data on Friday was mostly dominated by the U.S. housing data. Building permits, housing starts posted modest gains while the import prices rose 1.0% on the month.
Looking ahead, the economic data is light with the U.S. markets closed due to a bank holiday. Eurozone current account data is due during the day while the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be speaking later in the evening.
New Zealand will be reporting its PPI numbers towards the close.
EURUSD intra-day analysis
EURUSD (1.2408): The EURUSD was seen easing back on Friday after price action rallied to a fresh three year high. By Friday’s close, the euro currency was seen closing with a strong bearish price action alongside a potential double top pattern. In the near term, the declines could be extended to the downside towards 1.2363 – 1.2330 level. Establishing support here could offer some short term bounce to the upside. However, the euro currency will need to break past the previously posted highs for any conviction of further gains. To the downside, watch for a break below 1.2363 – 1.2330 level, as this could suggest a decline based on the daily chart’s double top pattern.
GBPUSD intra-day analysis
GBPUSD (1.4023): The British pound was seen easing back on Friday as price touched the previous support level of 1.4121 to establish resistance. The reversal at this level on the daily time frame indicates a pull back. We expect price to slip back to 1.3902 in the near term. There is a chance that GBPUSD could remain range bound within the current levels. But, if price action fails to hold the declines near the support of 1.3902 watch for prices to correct towards 1.3611 – 1.3600 region where the support is likely to be tested.
NZDUSD intra-day analysis
NZDUSD (0.7392): Price action in the New Zealand dollar looks somewhat similar to most of the other major currency pairs. After posting a fresh high, NZDUSD has also formed a double top pattern at the highs. This could suggest a near term decline. As a result, NZDUSD could be seen testing 0.7333 where support could be tested after it previously failed as resistance. But in the event that this support fails, then NZDUSD could be pulling back to post further downside correction. Support at 0.7160 is likely to be tested.
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