Intraday Analysis 4th July 2018

Sentiment in the markets were somewhat mixed with the safe haven, Japanese yen and gold prices rising on the day. The U.S. dollar was however seen stronger across most of the currencies.

The UK’s construction PMI came out stronger than expected as the index rose to 53.1. This beat forecasts of an increase to 52.6. The U.S. factory orders were seen rising 0.4% which also beat estimates of a 0.1% increase. The previous month’s data was seen revised to show a 0.4% decline.

Looking ahead, the economic data for the day will cover the services PMI from the Eurozone, including numbers from Germany and France. The final services PMI are forecast to remain unchanged at 55.0 as signaled from the preliminary estimates.

The UK’s services PMI is expected to fall slightly to 53.9 compared to 54.0. The U.S. markets are closed today due to the Independence Day bank holiday. The markets are expected to remain trading light toward the U.S. trading session.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

eurusd forex

EURUSD (1.1664): The EURUSD currency pair was trading subdued as it extended modest losses on the day. Price action was contained within the price range established from last Friday. While there was a rebound on the intraday charts off the support level near 1.1610 the gains were limited. Price action will need to clear the highs from Friday in order to extend toward the resistance level of 1.1730. To the downside, we expect the currency pair to remain supported above 1.1610.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

usdjpy forex

USDJPY (110.43): The USDJPY currency pair posted declines on the day following the breakout from the steeply rising wedge pattern. The close below 110.62 level suggests that in the near term, a minor retracement to the losses could see price retesting this level. As long as the price level of 110.62 holds, we can expect to see the downside prevail. USDJPY is likely to decline toward the lower support region of 109.57 – 109.43 level where support is pending a retest.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

xauusd forex

XAUUSD (1257.03): Gold prices managed to maintain the bullish momentum as price action rose close to the resistance level near 1263. In the near term, the retracement indicates that price could pull back toward the 1250 handle. As long as price action is supported above 1247 we expect gold prices to remain biased to the upside. A breakout above 1263 resistance is needed for prices to extend the gains toward the 1282.50 handle.

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About the Author
“John Benjamin Resident Analyst at Orbex. John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.”
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