Intraday Technical Analysis 11 December

The U.S. Dollar extended gains on Monday amid a somewhat slow trading day and lack of any clear fundamentals to push the USD higher. Gold prices retreated from Friday’s highs, and it was a similar story for the Euro currency as well.

GDP data from the UK showed a monthly increase of 0.1% matching estimates. This came amid the previous month showing that the GDP flatlined. Other economic data over the day included manufacturing production which fell 0.9% which was worse than the forecasts of a flat print. Construction output fared modestly better, falling just 0.2% against estimates of a 0.4% decline.

Industrial production was down by 0.6%, more than the forecasts of a 0.4% decline. Brexit continued to hog the limelight as the British Prime minister, Theresa May called off the scheduled Brexit vote to be held in the UK Parliament tomorrow. The sterling fell amid renewed concerns of a no-Brexit deal.

In the NY trading session, Canada’s building permits fell by 0.2% on the month, in line with estimates. This comes after building permits rose 0.4% the month before.

Looking ahead, the economic data for today is relatively quiet. The European trading session will see the UK’s labor market data coming out. Average earnings index is expected to rise 0.2% on the month, marking a steady pace of increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, unchanged from the previous period.

The ZEW economic sentiment report from Germany is forecast to show the index in the sentiment falling to -25 from 24.1 previously. This would mark a continued pessimistic outlook among German business firms. The Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment report is also due and is expected to fall to -23.2 from -22.0 previously.

The NY trading session will see the producer prices data. PPI is expected to remain flat for November while the core PPI is expected to rise 0.1%. This marks a modest increase compared to the 0.5% gain posted previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1368): The EURUSD currency pair is seen maintaining the consolidation near the current levels. Price briefly broke past the falling trend line only for the gains to be capped near the resistance level of 1.1435. This promptly resulted in the common currency posting declines and falling back below the trend line. The sideways range within 1.1435 – 1.1315 remains in play as a result. We expect the EURUSD to retest the support at 1.1315 once again potentially. A breakout from this level is needed for the currency pair to establish the next direction in the trend.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.2577): The GBPUSD extended declines on the day as price action finally broke out from the lower support area of 1.2747 – 1.2683. The cable fell to lows of 1.2511 before pulling back higher. However, the Stochastics oscillator is signaling that the decline is oversold and could potentially trigger a move to the upside. The GBPUSD could be seen retesting the breached support area to establish resistance. If the resistance fails to give way to the gain, we expect the GBPUSD to maintain the downside in price.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1246.54): Gold prices extended declines off the highs close to the 1250 handle. Price action is seen rebound off the support level at 1242.25. We expect the gains to form a lower high potentially. This could signal correction to the lower support at 1227.10. If gold prices manage to post a strong rebound leading to further gains, we could expect gold to test the $1250 handle. However, the overall momentum is likely to ease near these levels.