The UK’s GDP data released yesterday showed that the monthly gross domestic product increased 0.3% on the month. The data beat estimates of a 0.2% increase and up from 0.1% previously. However, manufacturing production fell 0.2%. Construction output surprised, rising 0.5%. The data beat estimates of a 0.4% decline.
The British pound surged strongly on the day after reports of the EU Chief negotiator’s Michel Barnier’s comments about Brexit. The U.S. dollar eased back on the Brexit developments.
The EU trading session will start with the UK’s jobs report. Economists polled expect the UK’s unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.0%, unchanged from the previous month. Average earnings are forecast to rise 2.5% over the three months ending August.
In the Eurozone, the German ZEW economic sentiment is expected to show -13.4. The NY trading session is quiet with only the wholesale inventories report coming out. Canada will be releasing the housing starts data which is expected to rise 218k.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.1599): The EURUSD currency pair closed bullish on Monday on a softer greenback. The rebound in prices came after the euro currency tested the technical support at 1.1540. The upside bounce could keep price action trading within the range of 1.1730 and 1.1540. A breakout from this range will most likely establish a new change in trend. To the upside, above 1.1730 resistance, the EURUSD could be seen testing the next main resistance at 1.1920. To the downside, the lower support at 1.1400 remains within the target.
GBPUSD intraday analysis
GBPUSD (1.3038): The British pound broke out to the upside clearing the minor falling trend line and the horizontal resistance level at 1.2958. The upside bounce puts GBPUSD to the upside. We expect to see a retest of the breakout level at 1.2958. Establishing support here could trigger further gains toward 1.3205 resistance level. With price action testing the highs from August 30, we expect a correction to 1.2958. This could most likely result in a cup and handle formation. The measured target puts price action in line to test 1.3205 resistance.
XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1193.98): Gold prices remain trading flat with a lot of consolidation taking place around the 1197.50 level. Price action has been trading within the larger triangle pattern. The risks are equally balanced with gold prices likely to move in either direction. To the upside, the target at 1219.75 remains in question while to the downside, the declines could stall at 1183.30 level of support. The overall trend in gold prices remains to the downside for the moment.