Intraday Technical Analysis 5 October

The U.S. Dollar was seen giving up some of the gains on Thursday. Price action retreated after a strong rally during the previous days. Economic data on the day was mostly limited. Australia’s trade balance figures were released. Data showed that the trade surplus rose to 1.60 billion. This beat estimates of a 1.43 billion increase.

Data from the Eurozone was relatively quiet. The NY trading session saw the release of Canada’s Ivey PMI. The index fell to 54.0 missing estimates of an increase to 62.3. However, with a reading above 50, the report indicated expansion. In the U.S. the factory orders showed a 2.3% increase on a month over month basis, beating estimates of a 2.2% increase.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the German factory orders and PPI reports. Switzerland will be releasing the inflation report for the month. Economists polled expect consumer prices to rise 0.2% on the month.

The NY trading session is expected to be busy with the release of both Canada and the U.S. jobs report. Canada is expected to post an employment change of 25k with the unemployment rate expected to fall from 6.0% to 5.9%.

In the U.S., the official payrolls data is forecast to show 185k jobs being added while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.8%. Wages are forecast to rise 0.3% on the month.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1511): The euro currency was seen posting modest gains on Thursday. Price action, however, is settled below the resistance level of 1.1547 – 1.1525 level. Some consolidation is expected below this level, but we expect the common currency to extend the gains down to the next lower support at 1.1435. The bias remains to the downside for the moment. If the EURUSD fails to hold on to the support at 1.1435, we expect the declines to push the currency pair further down to 1.1315.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.3010): The GBPUSD currency pair posted a modest rebound pushing price action to test the previous resistance level of 1.3054 – 1.3028. The rebound has resulted in price action forming a hidden bearish divergence. As long as this resistance level holds, we expect GBPUSD to push lower. The next downside target is seen at 1.2808. However, for this level to be tested, the cable will need to break down below the previously formed lows of 1.2925.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1198.50): Gold prices are seen consolidating near the 20-period moving average from the 4-hour chart. Price action remains trading sideways. However, there is scope for gold prices to test the upper resistance level at 1212.05. To the downside, the support at 1193.04 will most likely be tested in the short term. A close below this level could push gold prices back down to the 1183.30 level of support.