Monday Outlook – 21-11-2016

Welcome to our weekly outlook starting this Monday 21 November. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events. With the UK Autumn Statement due on Wednesday, many may be focusing on the Great British pound this week.

Event: ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech

Date: Monday 21 November 2016

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #ecb, #usd, #eur

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is expected to speak before the European Parliament in Strasbourg. ECB provided no clarifications yet as to the future of the its asset-purchasing programme. There is a possibility that Mr. Draghi might discuss plans to extend the ECB’s asset purchasing programme when the ECB meet again in 08 December. But following the result of the U.S. presidential elections and the victory of Donald Trump, there is uncertainty as to his future economic plans and their suitability. Analysts expect that the ECB might extend its bond-purchasing programme for an additional six months after its expiration in March 2017.

Event: EIA Crude Oil Stocks change

Date: Wednesday 23 November 2016 at 15:30 GMT

Markets affected: OIL/USD

Trending hashtags: #crudeoil, #usd

Crude oil reserves data surprised the markets as they showed a larger increase than expected for the week ended 11 November due to an increase of oil imported in the U.S. Crude oil stocks increased for three weeks in a row by a total of 21.2 million barrels. Analysts last week were expecting an increase of 1.48 million however the increase was much higher at 5.274 million barrels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet before the end of the month to discuss the possibility of limiting crude oil production that would cancel out the ongoing supply glut.

Event: FOMC minutes

Date: Wednesday 23 November 2016 at 18:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #fed, #inflation, #fomc

The minutes of the FOMC latest meeting at which the Fed decided against the increase of interest rates, are expected for release. The already-published Fed statement said that the case for increasing interest rates continues to strengthen, and the meeting minutes could give additional hints in favour of a rate hike during the last meeting of 2016 in December.

Event: Autumn Statement – UK

Date: Wednesday 23 November 2016 at 12:30 GMT

Markets affected: GBP/USD, GPB/EUR, FTSE 100

Trending hashtags: #GBP, #UKbudget, #Autumnstatement

The UK Autumn Statement is one of the two big economic statements released by the government. follows the Spring one. Newly appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, announces the government’s tax and spending plans based on projections from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) which does forecasting on the country’s economic growth. Expectations are for plans to deal with the UK’s ballooning debt but he will have to balance the need to perhaps spend on projects to grow the economy.

Event: German IFO – Business Climate

Date: Thursday 24 November 2016 at 09:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #eur, #ifo, #germany

Business confidence was unexpectedly boosted for the Eurozone’s strongest economy and reached a two-year high at 110.5, which is a sign of optimism within Germany’s corporate sector about economic growth. Analysts were expecting the IFO business climate index to reach 109.5 only as it now appears that the nation’s slowdown in economic growth might just be temporary. Expectations are for the index to climb at 110.6.

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