Australia Leading Index Signals Below Trend Growth

Australia’s leading index continued to signal weak economic momentum carrying well into 2020, the Westpac reported Wednesday.

The Westpac- Melbourne Institute leading index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.81 percent in November from -0.78 percent in October.

Westpac expect economic growth in 2020 to be stuck at 2.1 percent which compares with trend growth of 2.75 percent.

The leading index growth rate deteriorated over the last six months to -0.81 percent in November from -0.17 percent in June. The main components driving the 0.64 percent point shift have been a sell-off in commodity prices and a more mixed performance on the Australian share market.

Renewed weakness in dwelling approvals and the Westpac-MI Consumer Expectations Index also pulled down the index. The weakness was partially offset by a widening yield spread and a reduced drag from US industrial production.

The central bank board next meets on February 4. The bank is widely expected to ease rates at the upcoming meeting.

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Source:: Australia Leading Index Signals Below Trend Growth

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