BOE Bank Rate Votes & Official Bank Rate

BOE Bank Rate Votes and Official Bank Rate data will be released this afternoon (12:00pm BST). Watch my weekly Forex news event’s overview here or read my full analysis in order to learn about interpreting these particular data points.

Expected: 1-0-8
Previous: 1-0-8


As of August 2015, the BOE release their Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes and their Official Bank Rate decision at the same time. The minutes contain the interest rate and asset purchase vote for each of the nine MPC members during the most recent meeting. The breakdown of votes provides insight into which members are changing their stance and how close the committee is to enacting a change in monetary policy. This vote is reported in an X-X-X format; the first number is MPC members who want to raise rates, second to cut rates, third to keep on hold. The BOE release the MPC Rate Statement only when they have changed the OBR, therefore there will usually be no MPC Rate Statement released.

The BOE now also release a Monetary Policy Summary which contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

On a quarterly basis the BOE also release their Quarterly Inflation Report alongside the aforementioned releases. The QIR includes the BOE’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor also holds a press conference to discuss the report’s contents after release. The QIR provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation; these are the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.


The BOE intend to raise rates in 2016. The GBP has however pulled back against most counterparts in recent weeks due to the concerns over a slowdown in China and a sharp decline in equities. These minutes will be crucial to see how MPC members view recent financial developments. A recent article in the UK Telegraph proposed that the BOE will be unfazed by the stockmarket rout. Last month, MPC member Ian McCafferty changed his vote towards a dissent, calling for a rate hike. All economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg expect the MPC vote to be 8-1 for rates to be held unchanged, with the exception of McCafferty. In light of the disinflationary risks from China, ensuing market volatility as well as the trifecta of misses in UK PMIs, and Industrial Production, there is slight possibility that McCafferty will change his mind and vote for no change, in which case would cast a considerable a hit on the currency. If on the other hand, McCafferty maintains his dissent and the MPC members remain optimistic about inflation in the medium term, then GBP will likely remain strong.

Expected Market Reaction:

The initial reaction will come from any surprises in the vote count, with a change back to nine-nil causing downside in the GBP. Conversely if any extra members voted for a hike now then we will see upside in GBP. If the votes are as expected then the language of the statements will be the important factor in determining direction in sterling. The market will be focussed on how the members view recent developments from China and global stockmarkets.

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Source:: BOE Bank Rate Votes & Official Bank Rate

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