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Bullet Report | Along with England winning in overtime, GBP stages days best reversal
Brexit referendum continues to be the main focus however campaigns for and against it are suspended for the second day after the killing of a Member of Parliament yesterday. Stock markets were slightly better yesterday after days of losses as the probability of a Brexit has been reduced to 38% after hitting 44% on Thursday. The economic calendar includes US housing starts this afternoon and ECB President Mario Draghi speaking at the same time.
Currencies: USD got a roller-coaster day with the USD index initially jumping to as high as 95.32 before ending the day largely flat at 94.56. USDJPY was stable at 104.30 after dropping to a 22 month low of 103.55 yesterday. EURUSD is trading higher today reaching a high of 1.1260 after being sold off yesterday to 1.1130. GBPUSD was the most volatile pair yesterday as the Sterling recovered almost 300 points intraday, rising to 1.4290 from 1.4011 after rumors were released that the Brexit vote would be delayed due to the murder of an MP politician in the UK yesterday. The pair’s reversal was the second big surprise after the nation’s national football team managed to come back from behind and beat Wales for 2-1 after a goal scored in the 2nd minute of overtime in the EURO 2016. (Not really related with each other though).
Stocks: Yesterday was a relief day for most stock indices globally. After consecutive days of big losses, Asian shares rose today as market participants are seen to lean towards the probability of UK remaining within the EU. Wall Street also marked gains overnight, with the benchmark S&P 500 index erasing sharp intra-day losses to snap a 5 day losing streak. Investors are considering the risk of Brexit to have been lowered, both by reports that European hedge funds believe Brexit will not get up and, secondly, that the shooting the UK politician has played a negative role against the Brexit vote.
Oil and Gold: GOLD staged a dramatic rise and an even more spectacular fall yesterday. After hitting $1316 which was the highest since August 2014, the yellow metal then collapsed over $40 and traded as low $1276 as stock markets recovered. Crude oil had its first rise in seven days as markets took a breather from concerns about the impact of Britain’s possible exit from the EU. BRT and WTI oil rose 38 and 27 cents after falling 3.6% and 3.8% in the previous session respectively.
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