The big day is here. UK holds the in/out referendum today. Polls should open at 6am GMT and will close at 21:00pm GMT. Any results will be announced after this time. Sky News have announced that they will publish ‘on the day’ polls at 22:00 pm GMT and their outcome could trigger sharp market moves. The final outcome should be made clear Friday morning hours GMT. One day ahead of the vote, the GBP has hit its highest level in this year above 1.48 signaling a very good probability of a remain outcome.
Currencies: Increased probabilities of the “remain” vote have helped majors reclaim lost territory versus the USD. AUD, GBP and EUR have all hit multi week highs while USDJPY was just sold off under 104.00 in a large spike that saw it drop 60 pips in 5 minutes. The VIX index, which measures volatility, has risen to above 21, its highest this year, indicating the uncertainty of the market. The GBPUSD rose to 1.4867 from 1.4660 lows overnight indicating that traders position themselves in favor of UK remaining. The GBPUSD now trades at the highest level in 6 months and has completed a 6% rise in total from last week. Some investors such as George Soros expect the value of the British pound to decline by as much as 15 % from current levels in the event of a British exit from the EU.
Stocks: Financial markets are mixed. FTSE in the UK closed 0.56% yesterday however US stocks have been mixed with DJ down -0.27% and SP500 down -0.17. In Asia stock markets closed higher with Nikkei leading with a 0.4% rise, while EU indices 1 hour ago have opened 1% higher.
Oil and Gold: Crude oil prices rose after settling down more than 1% on Wednesday after the U.S. government reported a smaller-than-expected inventory drawdown. Brent added 0.8 % to $50.28 a barrel after shedding 1.5 % on Wednesday, while U.S. crude was up 0.9 % at $49.54 after giving up 1.4 % in the previous session. GOLD plummeted to a 2 week low of 1260.40 as stock markets rose, making the yellow metal lose appeal.