Over the course of the next 48 hours, more than 14 world central banks that are regularly tracked by the market will have monetary policy meetings.
As you might expect, that could occasion a lot of added volatility across a significant number of currency pairs. Stocks are likely to be a bit jittery as investors make it through this period of uncertainty.
After the meetings, however, markets tend to generally settle down for the holidays. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be any extraordinary moves during that time. But, there is an overall perception that this week’s raft of central bank policy meetings will set the tone for the rest of the year.
Let’s review our forecast from the most important of the meetings:
The SNB’s meeting is likely to be the least eventful of the ones scheduled. There is a universal consensus that they won’t just leave the rate as it is, but not change anything in their policy.
In fact, analysts are pretty much all in agreement that the SNB will practically repeat last month’s statement regarding the economic situation as well. We wouldn’t expect to see much change in currencies as a response to the meeting.
The Norges basically said at the last meeting that they would raise rates in December, so the consensus is that they will follow through with that. This means that we probably won’t see a major shift in the NOK from a rate hike.
The question is whether they will announce another rate hike for next year, and when. The market is anticipating at least one rate hike in Q1.
Here, things are a little more controversial for the UK.
Governor Bailey has been hinting that a rate hike is coming soon. Then he voted to not change policy. So, there is only a minority of analysts who are expecting the BOE to raise rates by just 15 basis points.
The better-than-expected unemployment data didn’t really change the math. Should a rate hike happen, it would take the market by surprise, and that could support the pound.
Most notably, there is no press conference scheduled for after the meeting, and that is typically a sign that no change will happen.
The focus for the ECB’s policy meeting is on the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchases Program).
The expectation is to keep the program at its current size, which would keep it running until March of next year. Nonetheless, they did say they would “recalibrate” their policy settings at this meeting.
The ECB has the most leeway among the central banks. So there is an assumption that they will signal to the market that they aren’t going to make any hawkish moves. That would cause the euro to soften a bit, as the market is pricing in a reduction of the PEPP program.
Economists broadly expect the CBRT to cut rates within the framework of President Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policy theory. He met with the head of the central bank just a couple of days ahead of the meeting and routinely calls for more easing.
The lira broke the 14th barrier recently, and a further cut would likely contribute to the currency depreciating once more. 95% of the surveyed analysts are expecting a 100 basis point cut.