Dollar Supported Despite Fed Rate Cut
The US Dollar has started the week on positive footing with the USD index trading 98.36 last as weakness in equities prices has seen demand in the greenback. Last week, the Fed cut rates by .25% in line with broad expectations. However, a higher number of policymakers voted against the cut than had been expected, which has cast doubt on the prospect of a further Fed easing.
Euro Weakens Following PMI Disappointment
EURUSD has started the week under pressure. Renewed strength in the US dollar has compounded bearish pressure on EUR which has been heavily sold following the release of lower-than-expected PMI data sets for both Germany and the Eurozone. PMIs for the Eurozone moved further into contractionary territory across all sectors. EURUSD trades 1.0979 last, trading back below the 1.1025 level.
GBPUSD has come under selling pressure today again with price backing away from the bear channel top. News of the collapse of Thomas Cook has exacerbated Brexit fears as the Uk moves closer to the October 31st Brexit date. While the BOE has highlighted that it might need to raise rates if a deal can be done, a no-deal Brexit could see the bank cutting rates to backstop the economy.
Rocky Start For Risk Assets
Risk assets have started the week tentatively with the SPX500 trading lower. Despite a backdrop of generally better risk sentiment, some investors are hesitant over the prospect of the US succeeding in doing a trade deal with China. These concerns are providing a headwind for equities prices currently with SPX500 trading 2987.93 last.
Yen & Gold Rallying
Safe havens have had a strong start to the week with both JPY and gold trading higher against USD. XAUUSD trades 1518.95 last with price making its way back up towards the key 1522.75 level. USDJPY trades 107.46 last with price having broken back beneath the 107.62 level which will no doubt be frustrating for the BOJ.
Crude Comes Off
Oil prices have started the week under pressure. With Saudi Arabia working to restore full oil-production capacity following last week’s drone strikes, focus has shifted back to the recent bearish forecasts from the EIA and OPEC. Both Groups have revised their global oil demand outlooks lower while also forecasting higher production levels. OPEC is reportedly considering further production cuts when it meets in December. However, the loss of supply in Saudi Arabia has cast doubt on whether the group, which is the defacto leader of OPEC, will be open to further cuts. Crude trades 57.66 last, having moved back beneath the 58.41 level.
CAD Under Pressure
USDCAD moved strongly higher at the start of the European session today in response to weakness in crude prices which has capped CAD upside. Price is now challenging the 1.33 level once again which remains the key upside marker to watch. Limited tier-one data this week means that flows will likely stay linked to oil movements and general risk sentiment.
AUDUSD has been heavily lower today. A stronger US Dollar, as well as weakness in risk assets, has seen the Aussie sold over the morning. Any headlines around ongoing US/China trade talks remain key for AUD which is often used as a proxy for trading China given the reliance of the Australian economy on its trading relationship with China. AUDUSD trades .6771 last, still above the .6758 level for now.