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Crude Oil Edges Lower on Increasing Supply
Crude oil price have been on the retreat this Friday, touching new six-week lows of $45.91, and down from around $47.00 at Thursday’s close. Added pressure was added to already declining prices, as the IAE upped its supply forecasts, saying there was no sign yet of abating production levels in the U.S.
On Wednesday the Department of Energy released its estimate of inventories that were also stronger than expected. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 448.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.
Demand for products continues to remain robust. According to the Energy Information Administration, total products demand over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels per day, up by 5.5% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, gasoline demand averaged over 8.7 million barrels per day, up by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand averaged 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 12.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is up 10.5% compared to the same four-week period last year.
The technicals for oil prices are negative. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a sell signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the 9-day moving average of the spread. The index moved from positive to negative territory confirming the sell signal.
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