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Crude Oil Poised to Break Out Following Smaller than Expected Inventory Build
Posted On 29 Apr 2015
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Crude oil prices moved higher on Wednesday following smaller than expected build in crude oil inventories. Despite inventories hovering at an 80-year high, the trajectory of the builds have been slowing which reflects the recent declines in drilling rigs. This comes despite API inventory data released on Tuesday which revealed a 4.2 million barrel rise in stocks, considerably higher than the 1.5 million barrel estimate.
Inventory builds in crude oil were positive, but smaller than expected. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. This compares to the 3.0 million barrel build expected by analyst. At 490.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.
Gasoline inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels last week.
Demand was strong in jet fuel, as well as gasoline, but now that winter has finally come to a close, demand for heating oil has declined. Total products demand over the last four-week period averaged over 19.2 million barrels per day, up by 4.4% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, gasoline demand averaged over 8.9 million barrels per day, up by 2.6% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand averaged about 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 0.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is up 11.9% compared to the same four-week period last year.
Crude oil prices have been consolidating in a tight range and are poised to move higher as the dollar moves lower. A close above resistance near $58.50 would likely lead to a test of target resistance near $63.
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