Current Market Sentiment | Core US PCE

Key risk events for the day come from the US during the NY session. Core PCE is hugely important and any deviation could drive direction in the dollar for the rest of the session. Also important is Core Durable Goods Orders. We will be watching these numbers and if they beat estimates then we will likely see dollar strength, along with rising expectations for a December rate increase. Watch the weekly risk events overview here and read my analysis of current market sentiment below in order to prepare for these releases.

Current Market Sentiment:

In yesterday’s NY session, US 2nd Estimate GDP for the third quarter (annualised) was revised higher to 2.1% as expected, up from 1.5% at the Advance reading. The dollar was relatively unchanged from the release. Consumer confidence missed expectations printing at 90.4 vs the consensus 99.5, however last months print of 97.6 was revised higher to 99.1. Lack of confidence in the outlook for the jobs market sank the consumer confidence index in November. The reading was well under expectations and the lowest since September last year.

There were no major economic releases during the Asian session. The BOJ released minutes from their October 30 policy meeting which showed that most members saw underlying inflation as improving however some others remained sceptical of reaching the 2% target by the end of 2016. We have since had another statement and press conference which dampens the impact of these minutes.

Construction Work Done from Australia for the third quarter came in lower than expected, showing a decline of 3.6%, however this was well within the high and low estimates and the AUD has continued to edge higher.

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