Daily Market Report – EUR/USD is this a false breakout? July 19, 2017

EUR/USD losing momentum

The EUR/USD rallied in the yesterday’s trading session and reached the 1.1582 level, the buyers weren’t able to keep the price above the 1.1552 closing price and now is going down. The minor decreased could be temporary because is still located in the buyer’s territory.

Has found temporary resistance and now could come down to test and retest some support levels before will resume the upside movement.

Technically is expected to climb much higher in the upcoming period after the impressive breakout above the 1.1466 long term resistance. Will turn to the downside only if the USDX will have enough energy to bounce back on the short term.

I’ve added the USDX’s daily chart to show you what are the USD’s perspectives in the upcoming period, has found temporary support at 94.49 level and now is fighting hard to recover. Has touched the lower median line (lml) of the descending dotted line and closed above this level, signaling an oversold.

USDX is pressuring the broken warning line (WL1) of the major ascending pitchfork, only a false breakout below this level will signal a reversal on the short term. Could increase towards the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork if will stay above the lower median line (lml).

You can see that the USDX’s minor rebound has sent the EUR/USD lower, price failed to close above the sixth warning line (wl6) and now could come to test and retest the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork and the sliding line (ascending dotted line).

The perspective remains bullish as long as is trading within the ascending pitchfork’s body and most important above the median line (ml). The next major upside target will be at the 1.1615 swing high, I an to remind you that is trading inside of a major resistance area, but as I’ve said higher, the outlook is bullish.

GBP/USD throwback expected

GBP/USD decreased a little in the last two days and could test and retest a former major dynamic resistance (resistance turned into support) before will climb much higher.

Price failed to stay above the 1.3112 level and above the 150% Fibonacci line and now is going down to retest the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork. A retest followed by an increase will bring us the opportunity to go long again on this pair.

Is trading within an ascending channel, could come to retest also the first warning line (wl1) of the minor ascending pitchfork before will climb towards fresh new highs.

Gold upside paused

We have a rebound in play, which has touched the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork, this represents a major dynamic resistance, could retest also the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork. The bias is somehow bearish as long as is trading under the mentioned resistance levels. Continues to move sideways, between the 23.6% and the 50% retracement levels, we’ll have a clear direction after a valid breakout from this range. The bounce back was natural after the false breakdown below the 50% retracement level and after the failure to retest the median line (ml) of the minor descending pitchfork.

By Olimpiu Tuns

Market Analyst

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