Daily Market Report – USD/JPY Testing The Sellers August 25, 2017

USD/JPY Downside Still An Option?

Price stays higher and tries to retest the resistance levels (support turned into resistance), a further drop is somehow expected, but only if the Nikkei stock index will slide further. This scenario is clouded as the JP225 is trading in the green and tries to climb much higher after the failure to close below the 19309 previous low.

I’ve said in the previous reports that the index shows some oversold signs, has lost the bearish momentum, so another leg higher will punish the Yen, which will depreciate versus all its rivals.

The Yen decreased on the mixed Japanese data, the National Core CPI rose by 0.5%, matching the 0.5% estimate, has beaten the 0.4% growth in the former reading period, while the Tokyo Core CPI surged by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% estimate and the 0.2% growth in the former reporting period. Moreover, the SPPI increased by 0.6%, but less versus the 0.8% estimate and compared to the 0.7% in the former reading period.

Price is retesting the warning line (wl1) and the minor red uptrend line, the perspective remains bearish as long as the rate stays under these levels. However a breakout above the mentioned dynamic resistance levels, followed by a wl1 retest will signal an important upside movement in the upcoming weeks.

Is moving sideways and looks like that the behavior will change as the rate makes higher lows, I hope that we’ll have a clear direction after the Jackson Hole Symposium.

USD/CHF Upside Clouded

USD/CHF failed to close above the median line (ml) of the minor descending pitchfork and now goes down. Is almost to hit the second warning line (WL2) of the major ascending pitchfork, a valid breakdown will open the door for more declines in the upcoming period. I want to remind you that a valid breakout above the median line (ml) will most likely validate also the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

EUR/JPY Attracted By Confluence Area

Price edges higher again and is almost to hit the confluence area formed by the upper median line (UML) with the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork. A valid breakout will accelerate the upside momentum and will invalidate the minor Head and Shoulders pattern. Only a rejection from here will keep the a bearish bias on the short term.

By Olimpiu Tuns

Market Analyst

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