Daily Technical Review – 17 Dec 2015

Posted On 17 Dec 2015
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End of Day Technical Analysis Report for:



► EUR/USD: as stated yesterday we expected downside today but we thought the area of confluent support at 1.0820 would cause the market to stall so we didn’t see sufficent R:R for a Short. Price indeed stopped at 1.0820/20 sma/50sma support.  We will see if price rotates to the uspide from here. The longish tail to today’s candle suggests it is a possibility.
Technical Recommendation: Watching Price reaction at Key confluent support.
                                                                 EURUSD – Daily

GBP/USD: Sterling dumped today. We did suggest 1.4900 was a likely target but in all honesty we did not not expect such a collapse, based on the previous 2 bullish weekly candles ay key support. Today we show the Weekly Chart to illustrate what we mean. Similarly to the Euro, now that price is at key support, we will wait to see what happens BUT today’s close at the lows, suggests a downside breakout is more likely. If 1.4900 support fails, 1.4645 is the next support level.
Technical Recommendation: Watching Price reaction at Key static support.
                                                                 GBPUSD – Weekly

► AUD/USD: the Aussie is on its way to re-test the bottom of a long term triangular consolidation around 0.7070, as we have been discussing. We will wait and see if price gets there tomorrow and we may get a Buy signal.
Technical Recommendation: Looking for price to reach 0.7070 confluent support.
                                                                 AUDUSD – Daily
                           Back to Top

► USDJPY: price stalls at 122.50 which we should probably revise as being static resistance, especially as today’s doji closed right on this level. We had been Short and bagged some profit earlier this week. A bearish confirmation tomorrow could warrant a new Short.
Technical Recommendation: Price at key resistance. Re-assessing.
                                                                 USDJPY – Daily

► USDCHF: at midnight last night we went STTS Long in this pair. Today’s bullish continuation bodes well for potential further upside.

Technical Recommendation: We are Long. Position +40 pips in profit
                                                                USDCHF – Daily

► NZDUSD: we were Long with a relatively tight Stop and the market did not go our way today. Luckily we sensed this earlier today, due to price action in the lower time frames, and so we exited for only ½ x Risk loss. We still think this market is in a rising channel so we may see an upward rotation again soon. Confluent dynamic support (20/50 smas) is nearby so it may happen there (around 0.6660).
Technical Recommendation: Exited for ½ Risk loss. Price about to reach dynamic support event area.
                                                                 NZDUSD – Daily

GOLD: luckily, as discussed yesterday, selling just above 1070 made us hesitate going Long. We definitely did not expect today’s major sell off. Price about to reach Key support 1046 having broken 1054. Let’s see if 1046 holds. If it doesn’t, $1000 is the likely target.
Technical Recommendation: Re-assessing.
                                                               XAUUSD – Daily

► SP500: we said we would be buyers on dips. Today’s early action in the lower time frames suggested the start of a slow grinding rally so we chose to go Long with a tight Stop. Boy ..were we wrong! We got a dip and then some! Today’s action confirms how crazy this market is right now, as traders try to decide whether the FED raising rates is good or bad for the markets. Our Fundamental team, in a Macro Article a few days ago, called for the Fed to raise rates followed by a knee-jerk reaction to the downside in the Stock Market. So far they’re spot on. They, like us, believe this could give us a good buying opportunity. Today we clearly jumped the gun!
Technical Recommendation: Stopped out for 1 x Risk loss. Re-assessing.
                                                               SP500 – Daily

► WTI: also stopped out in our STTS Long in WTI Crude today. Not a great day really! Luckily we only went Long in ½ Risk as it was against a strong downtrend. Price now is at 34.50$ support once again. This level goes back to 2008 by the way. We thought it would cause a reversal earlier this week, which is why we went Long, but we were wrong. Let’s see it holds now.
Technical Recommendation: Stopped out for ½ Risk loss. Re-assessing.
                                                              WTI – Daily


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