Draghi’s comments reverse euro rally

European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy statement amplified downwards pressure for the euro as it included some negative revisions of its inflation and growth forecasts over the coming two years. ECB predicts that inflation levels within Eurozone might not move upwards from their very low levels given the recent indications that global economic growth could be facing stagnation.

During his scheduled press conference after the release of the monetary policy statement, ECB President Mario Draghi sounded arguably optimistic by saying that the Eurozone will remain under economic recovery, but subsequently added that the pace of the recovery could not be as strong as initially predicted. The ECB President pointed to negative factors affecting economic growth and inflation levels, quite possibly referring to the recent growth slowdown of the Chinese economy and its chain effects, as parameters for the downwards growth and inflation revisions.

An integral part within ECB’s agenda during the Eurozone policymakers’ scheduled bi-annual meeting is always the decision of the interest rate level, but it has been widely expected that the rates would remain at the same very low level of 0.05% which is what was actually decided. However, ECB’s economic growth projections for 2015 and 2016 have been downwards revised from 1.5% to 1.4% and from 1.9% to 1.7% respectively.

But what really sparked the euro’s sell-off were hints by Mr. Draghi that the ECB is ready to expand its Quantitative Easing measures if necessary to help Eurozone’s efforts to economic recovery. The EUR/USD recorded significant losses following the press conference last Thursday by 0.8% and fell as low as 1.10864 from a weekly high of 1.13313 on Tuesday. On a weekly basis, the world’s most popular currency pair moved with losses by 0.5% and ended Friday’s trading at 1.11495.

Following data on Friday by the U.S. Department of Labour, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data increased in August by 173,000. Even though the increase was below analysts’ expectations of 220,000, the Department of Labour pointed to upcoming higher revisions of August’s NFP data. Perhaps more interestingly, the Unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in August in comparison to 5.3% during the previous month and was also lower than forecasts for 5.2%. Friday’s employment data injected the markets with a different dynamic as they are the last set before the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision during next week (16-17 September). While there were upwards revisions of NFP data for July from 215,000 to 245,000, the weaker-than-expected August data might provide the Fed with additional reasons to stick to its guns and not proceed with an interest rate increase.

Given that the ECB remains undoubtedly cautious of economic growth progress, the upcoming Eurozone growth data might stir up the markets. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is due for release on Tuesday 08 September at 09:00 GMT and any deviations from analysts’ expectations for Q2 2015 growth to remain stable at 0.3% might increase volatility levels for the EUR/USD.

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