ECB’s Hansson States QE May Not Eventuate

The EURUSD traded in a very narrow range yesterday, and seemed to struggle to find any real direction. In fact, this pair concluded the day only a few pips above where it opened, 1.3525. This could possibly be correlated by June’s EU CPI (inflation) levels being confirmed at a lowly 0.8% being cancelled out by comments from ECB Governing Council member, Ardo Hansson that Quantitative Easing isn’t a tool he personally feels the ECB need to currently introduce. There was also a suggestion that there is still a possibility that QE might not be needed at all.

Looking ahead to today, the only scheduled EU economic release is the Euro-Zone’s current account balance for May. Later in the afternoon, both the latest US Leading Indicators and University of Michigan Confidence are announced. With the latter being seen as an indicator of both current consumer and business confidence levels, this should have more impact on the EURUSD direction. If bearish pressure continues, support levels can be found at 1.3501 and 1.3475.

Moving onto the GBPUSD, this pair continued to experience bearish movement after Wednesday’s UK employment report failed to encourage a further upside rally. The GBPUSD declined by 30pips and concluded the day’s trading at around 1.7101.

In reference to today, there are no scheduled UK economic releases to be announced. Therefore, in a similar manner to the EURUSD, this pair will also be more likely to move depending on the reaction to the United States data. However, it might be fruitful to bear in mind that the 1.7101 support level proved rather stubborn last week. If the pair does extend last week’s dynamic support level, further support can be found at 1.7069 and 1.7059.

In my view, the USDJPY moved in an unorthodox manner yesterday. Despite US economic data arguably being positive such as Initial Jobless Claims being just over 302,000, the USDJPY experienced bearish pressure and lost 50 pips. The USDJPY concluded trading at 101.167. Perhaps the USDJPY’s losses can be attributed towards Janet Yellen’s comments the day prior that the US economy still needs QE stimulus.

Once again, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be content after the AUDUSD recorded its third day of consecutive losses. The AUDUSD concluded trading at 0.9350. As mentioned yesterday and the day before, the RBA have been attempting to talk down their currency for over two months.

Until next Wednesday morning’s Australian CPI (inflation) announcement, economic announcements are rather low in quantity. Currently, support levels are situated at located at 0.9329 and 0.9316. In reference to resistance levels, potential areas are can be found at 0.9363 and 0.9400.

Finally, the NZDUSD recorded its sixth day of consecutive losses. The disappointing New Zealand CPI release on Tuesday evening has reduced expectations for a fourth straight Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate hike in July and as a result of this, investors are taking profit. The NZDUSD concluded yesterday’s trading at 0.8667.

If this bearish pressure continues for the NZDUSD, further support is located at 0.8655 and 0.8638. If the pair appreciates in valuation, resistance is situated at 0.8690 and 0.8712.

 

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Jameel Ahmad
About the Author
Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at Forex Time (FXTM). He holds a BA (Hons)degree in Business Studies with Accountancy & Finance from the University of the West of England, Bristol, UK. In his early career, Jameel worked on a variety of projects in the Middle East, Europe and United States, which allowed him to develop a detailed understanding of banking, international finance and asset management. Later on he worked as a strategic research analyst for an international brokerage firm, where he gained invaluable experience in writing FX commentaries and fundamental analysis on distinguished financial websites.

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