End of Day Technical Review – 06 May 2015


End of Day Technical Analysis Report for:

EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD

GOLD and SP500 



DUE TO BUSINESS TRAVEL COMMITMENTS DIRECTOR OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND AUTHOR OF THE DAILY REPORT, STEFANO BRESCHI IS AWAY UNTIL NEXT WEEK. THE DAILY WILL THEREFORE TAKE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOOK AT THE MARKETS IN THE INTERIM.
► EUR/USD: A lovely day for the Euro. Strength all day and a close near the high. A retracement after this stellar move is likely and should be used as a buying opportunity for those not already long.No change in our current stance. Our stance remains unaltered. As per last commentary you should remain partially Long. Use a trailing Stop.
Technical Recommendation: Should still be partially Long. If flat look to buy on a retracement.
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GBP/USD: A strongish day. We get the feeling however it was less because of GBP strength but more to do with $ weakness. For those long we would strongly recommend some profit taking in light of tomorrow’s general election which should result in indecision and hence heightened volatility.
Longs should be either trailing the Stop and/or also considering taking profit here. A pull back is likely from these levels.
Technical Recommendation: Take some profit and/or use a trailing Stop.
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► AUD/USD: The recent RBA rate cut has done nothing but produce strength for the AUD counter to popular believe. However today’s strength was not as convincing as first impressions indicate. Recent high was not surpassed and the close well of the day’s high. A quick, potentially sizeable correction is on the immediate cards. Weakness must be used to re-enter a long position.

Technical Recommendation: Looking to re-enter Long.

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► USD/JPY: Full on $ weakness against the Yen has started. The global carry trade is in trouble and that is being witnessed in risk assets. There is much further Yen upside post a smallish correction.
Stand aside and wait for a better selling opportunity higher up.
Technical Recommendation: Stand aside.
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► USD/CAD:Our stance has not altered. We happily remain Short as we see this bearish trend continuing. Our 1st Target is just above 1.1700. Weakness again today but well of the lows. We may see a small corrective bounce before the resumption down.
Technical Recommendation: We are Short. Position ca 145 pips in profit.
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NZD/USD: A nothing day for this pair on the face of it with a close virtually unchanged. However intra-day movement was quite large meaning that indecision abounds. Recent NZD weakness may be rectified.
Technical Recommendation: Stand aside.
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► GOLD: Technically we are neutral whilst fundamentally bullish. Todaywe again saw an attempt at the 1200 which fell short marginally short. The anticipated small further weakness we discussed in yesterday’s report did take place today but a breakout is fast approaching. Perhaps after this Friday’s NonFarm Payroll figure.
Technical Recommendation: Neutral.
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SP500: In yesterday’s report we wrote the following: “A pretty weak day with no discernable bounce into the close. This market feels very heavy and it will take something extraordinary to force new highs. It would seem that the path of least resistance is now to the downside with flurries of small bounces.” The same could be written today with the exception that there was a bounce of the day’s low. We can expect a short term, relief bounce before Friday’s NonFarm Payroll data.

Technical Recommendation: Re-assessing.
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CHARTING LEGEND:


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