EU Session Bullet Report – ECB rate decision ahead, USD in demand

The main focus of the day will be the ECB rate decision and the press conference at 12:30 GMT. ECB is not expected to change anything in regards to rate or the 60 bln monthly asset purchase program. Look for the ECB president to face questions on china’s slowdown, the EUR recent rise, and weak commodity prices, all of which point to near 0% inflation in coming months. EURUSD came off its highs yesterday and broke a key technical level indicating temporary weakness. Key support is 1.1160.

Yesterday, weak ADP employment numbers were ignored by the market as it seems the expectations for a strong NFP report on Friday are setting the expectations also for a strong USD. The greenback recovered some of its losses which caused also a new 3 month low on the GBPUSD which hit 1.5263. Watch the UK Services PMI on Thursday – a downbeat surprise could trigger a further selloff.

China markets are closed today so markets were benefited with the absence of fear for another crash. With stock markets taking a breather in the region, USDJPY managed to creep higher but was limited to under 120.50. JPY is inversely correlated to stocks, so when they rise, JPY is sold off.

AUDUSD fell hard on the simultaneous release of retail sales and trade balance data; retail sales was particularly disappointing, falling much more than expected in July

Trading Quote of the Day:

Your ability to stick to the strategy is more important than the strategy itself

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.126
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.126 with targets @ 1.12 & 1.1155 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.126 look for further upside with 1.129 & 1.132 as targets.
Comment: The pair has broken below a rising trend line and remains on the downside.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.534
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.534 with targets @ 1.526 & 1.521 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.534 look for further upside with 1.538 & 1.5445 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7065
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7065 with targets @ 0.698 & 0.695 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.7065 look for further upside with 0.7095 & 0.712 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

USDJPY
Pivot: 119.9
Likely scenario: Long positions above 119.9 with targets @ 121.05 & 121.4 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 119.9 look for further downside with 119.5 & 119.2 as targets.
Comment: The RSI has just broken above a bearish trend line.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3195
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.3195 with targets @ 1.3325 & 1.335 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.3195 look for further downside with 1.3155 & 1.311 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9635
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9635 with targets @ 0.973 & 0.9775 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9635 look for further downside with 0.9565 & 0.9505 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

GOLD
Pivot: 1142.5
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1142.5 with targets @ 1125 & 1117 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1142.5 look for further upside with 1148 & 1153 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

OIL
Pivot: 47
Likely scenario: Short positions below 47 with targets @ 43.2 & 41.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 47 look for further upside with 48.7 & 49.4 as targets.
Comment: As long as 47 is resistance, likely decline to 43.2.

DAX
Pivot: 10440
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10440 with targets @ 9780 & 9645 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10440 look for further upside with 10650 & 10735 as targets.
Comment: As long as 10440 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Important note: These technical and research reports are provided to easy-forex® as a subscriber of third party providers. They are provided for informative purposes only and in no way can they be considered as a recommendation by easy-forex® to you to engage in any trade. Hence, easy-forex® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with these reports or similar reports. You hereby acknowledge that using the information entailed in these reports is at your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to these reports against easy-forex®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use these reports.

TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

The post EU Session Bullet Report – ECB rate decision ahead, USD in demand appeared first on Forex.Info.

Source:: EU Session Bullet Report – ECB rate decision ahead, USD in demand