Good morning. Today, the long awaited decision on whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September will be made. The FOMC will conclude its 2 day meeting and at 18:00 GMT, Fed chair Janet Yellen will announce the committee’s decision.
Yesterday, following a slow start to the European session, stock markets enjoyed a welcome boost during U.S session, with the Dow Jones closing at its highest level in 4 weeks.
This morning, Asian stocks have edged up slightly to a 3 week high, whilst the Dollar drifted slightly lower as investors consolidate positions ahead of tonight’s nail-biting decision.
Oil surged 6% yesterday, its strongest one day move in September following data released showing a surprising drop in domestic stockpiles. Despite the price surge, the black gold continues to remain under pressure as demand remains low.
Gold also recorded its best one day gain in more than one month, closing the day at 1119.72. Having broken past its previous resistance levels, the RSI is now supported by a rising trend line so we may see further upward momentum.
GBPUSD also posted its biggest one day gain in almost two months, following Bank of England governor Mark Carney, stating that interest rates could be raised in early 2016.
Things are definitely heating up and traders should be prepared for a volatile day of trading offering up plenty of opportunities.
News wise today, aside of the FOMC, we have retail sales from the U.K at 08:30 GMT and building permits and unemployment claims from the U.S at 12:30 GMT. Also, watch out the Swiss libor rate decision this morning at 07:30 GMT.
Join us later for the U.S bullet report where we will be reviewing the key things to listen out for during Janet Yellen’s conference tonight.
Trading quote of the day:
“A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate with working smarter. In fact, sometimes is the other way around.”
– Martin Schwartz, in Pit Bull
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.1265 with targets @ 1.133 & 1.137 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.1265 look for further downside with 1.121 & 1.118 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias. The pair has broken above the upper boundary of a bearish channel and remains on the upside.
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.541 with targets @ 1.5555 & 1.56 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.541 look for further downside with 1.533 & 1.529 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.714 with targets @ 0.7225 & 0.7265 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.714 look for further downside with 0.7085 & 0.704 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Likely scenario: Long positions above 120.3 with targets @ 120.95 & 121.25 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 120.3 look for further downside with 120.1 & 119.75 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.322 with targets @ 1.315 & 1.313 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.322 look for further upside with 1.325 & 1.327 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.973 with targets @ 0.9665 & 0.964 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.973 look for further upside with 0.9765 & 0.9795 as targets.
Comment: As long as 0.973 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1115 with targets @ 1125 & 1127 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1115 look for further downside with 1112 & 1107 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
Likely scenario: Long positions above 46.5 with targets @ 47.8 & 48.4 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 46.5 look for further downside with 45.9 & 45.1 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 46.5 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10170 with targets @ 10340 & 10435 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10170 look for further downside with 10065 & 9950 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)
Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.
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