EU Session Bullet Report – OIL, EUR, JPY rally mode on

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It was the calm before the storm indeed yesterday. Another selloff in US and Asian markets meant another rally for the EUR and JPY as these currencies are inversely correlated to stock markets performance. Speculators often use low yielding currencies to fund positions in higher yielding currencies and equities so a worsening outlook for equity markets tends to boost currencies such as the EUR and JPY. As to why equity markets in US and China dropped again? In the US, the stock market is not happy for the possibility of a rate increase soon, and in China, well, it’s because its China. It doesn’t really need any reason to drop or rise anymore. Nevertheless, PMI numbers in china in August declined to 47.9 from 50.0 in July (lowest level in 3 years).

Notable market mover was oil (+8.8%) which’s move was missed if you blinked as it happened rapidly. Price rose after a government report showed a roughly 1% decline in June crude production and a bulletin from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expressing the group’s concerns over the low price of oil.
Looking ahead, PMI data will be the main focus today. In particular UK PMI manufacturing and US ISM manufacturing. Other data to be watched include PMIs in Eurozone, unemployment rate, Canada GDP and construction spending.

Trading quote of the day:

“It is not enough to have a good mind. The main thing is to use it well.”

– Rene Descartes

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.12
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.12 with targets @ 1.131 & 1.135 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.12 look for further downside with 1.1155 & 1.11 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5445
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.5445 with targets @ 1.5335 & 1.5265 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5445 look for further upside with 1.55 & 1.557 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.5445 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.5335 remains high.

 

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.716
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.716 with targets @ 0.7075 & 0.704 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.716 look for further upside with 0.7205 & 0.725 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 0.716 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7075 remains high.

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USDJPY
Pivot: 120.6
Likely scenario: Long positions above 120.6 with targets @ 121.3 & 121.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 120.6 look for further downside with 120.25 & 119.75 as targets.
Comment: Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

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USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3225
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.3225 with targets @ 1.311 & 1.3055 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3225 look for further upside with 1.3275 & 1.3325 as targets.
Comment: A break below 1.311 would trigger a drop towards 1.3055.

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USDCHF
Pivot: 0.958
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.958 with targets @ 0.969 & 0.973 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.958 look for further downside with 0.955 & 0.9505 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

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GOLD
Pivot: 1133
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1133 with targets @ 1146.5 & 1153 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1133 look for further downside with 1125 & 1117 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.

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OIL
Pivot: 45
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45 with targets @ 50 & 52 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45 look for further downside with 41.75 & 40.55 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

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DAX
Pivot: 10440
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10440 with targets @ 9920 & 9780 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10440 look for further upside with 10650 & 10735 as targets.
Comment: As long as 10440 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

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Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

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Source:: EU Session Bullet Report – OIL, EUR, JPY rally mode on

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