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EU Session Bullet Report – USD weak in a busy day
Adding to investor nervousness that followed attacks in Paris earlier this month, Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft near the Syrian border on Tuesday, saying the jet had violated its air space. The incident briefly sparked oil supply fears and sent crude prices surging overnight to 2-week highs. Subsequently the rally in oil prices, helped boosting commodity currencies such as the AUDUSD which reached a one month high near 0.7276. USD retreated and the USX index which tracks the performance of the USD versus a basket of other major currencies retreated ahead of the 100 level. EURUSD rose as well, after data showed that German data rose 0.3% in 3Q 2015. Additionally the nations IFO index advanced more than expected to 104.7 Vs 104. Resistance is at 1.0692 and support at 1.0633. On the contrary, GBPUSD nosedived after BoE head Mark Carney indicated that the low interest rate environment is likely to continue in the UK for “some time”. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5051, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5000. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5155,
We have several important releases in the US today ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday and Black Friday. Most important is the release of PCE inflation in November. Also due today in the US is the October report on personal income and spending, preliminary data for Markit PMI services in November, initial jobless claims and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment for November. New home sales in October could also attract attention as the September figure was very weak.
Trading Quote of the Day:
A trader should look at a chart for what it is, and not for what he want it to be.
Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support.
EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.063
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.063 with targets @ 1.071 & 1.074 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.063 look for further downside with 1.06 & 1.056 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
GBP/USD
Pivot: 1.5155
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.5155 with targets @ 1.5045 & 1.4965 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5155 look for further upside with 1.519 & 1.523 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.5155 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
AUD/USD
Pivot: 0.7215
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.7215 with targets @ 0.7295 & 0.732 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.7215 look for further downside with 0.718 & 0.715 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
USD/JPY
Pivot: 122.8
Likely scenario: Short positions below 122.8 with targets @ 122.2 & 122 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 122.8 look for further upside with 123.05 & 123.25 as targets.
Comment: A break below 122.2 would trigger a drop towards 122.
USD/CAD
Pivot: 1.3335
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.3335 with targets @ 1.327 & 1.324 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3335 look for further upside with 1.338 & 1.34 as targets.
Comment: A break below 1.327 would trigger a drop towards 1.324.
USD/CHF
Pivot: 1.0195
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.0195 with targets @ 1.012 & 1.009 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.0195 look for further upside with 1.022 & 1.025 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.0195 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.012 remains high.
GOLD
Pivot: 1067
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1067 with targets @ 1084 & 1088 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1067 look for further downside with 1063.5 & 1061 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Pivot: 41.86
Likely scenario: Long positions above 41.86 with targets @ 43.45 & 43.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 41.86 look for further downside with 41.26 & 40.43 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
DAX
Pivot: 11085
Likely scenario: Short positions below 11085 with targets @ 10865 & 10770 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 11085 look for further upside with 11170 & 11250 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)
Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.
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