US GDP Due Today
USD has softened slightly following yesterday’s rally with the index currently sitting just below yesterday’s highs. Looking ahead to the final US session of the week, traders are waiting on the release of the Q2 GDP. This is forecast to have ticked down to 1.8% from the prior 3.1%. With traders widely expecting the Fed to cut rates next week, a print in this region will likely be bearish for USD.
ECB Signals Rate Cuts To Come
EURUSD has had a much more subdued session today following a bout of extreme volatility yesterday in response to the ECB meeting. We had expected the central bank to announce fresh easing measures, in line with recent commentary.
However, bears were left disappointed as the bank kept policy unchanged at current levels. The ECB did, however, signal that a rate cut would likely be necessary in the coming months. They also noted that the staff is discussing the use of other options. EURUSD trades 1.1136 last, sitting just above the 1.1130 support which was broken yesterday.
GBP Down Again
GBPUSD has been under pressure again this morning as the fallout from the announcement of Boris Johnson as the new UK PM continues. With Johnson’s appointment comes the increased risk of a no-deal Brexit which is weighing on GBP. GBPUSD trades 1.2431 last, having broken slightly below the 1.2439 support.
SPX500 Recovers Yesterday’s Losses
Risk assets have been firmer today. SPX500 is trading back up to 3015.43 last following yesterday’s meltdown which saw price breaking below the 2999.98 level briefly. The potential for easing in Europe along with expectations of easing next week by the Fed is keeping equities well supported. This theme is likely to continue in the near term given the dire outlooks from both the Fed and the ECB.
Gold & JPY Down
Safe havens have had a softer session so far. Both gold and JPY are down against USD as equities continue to recover. XAUUSD trades 1418.67 last as the latest rejection from the 1433.04 level continues. USDJPY trades 108.64 last with price remaining capped by the 108.77 level for now.
Crude Still Supported
Oil prices remain supported on the final trading day of the week. The EIA reported a further drawdown in US crude stores last week with inventories declining by 10.8 million barrels. This marks the sixth consecutive weekly drawdown in US crude stores. And, with US crude production having also dropped, this is helping assuage concerns over the demand outlook. Crude trades 56.51 last with price remaining supported by the 55.79 level.
High Betas Beaten Down
USDCAD continues to rally hard today. Yesterday, price broke out above the 1.3145 level which has been capping price over recent weeks. Despite firmer oil price, CAD has been under pressure. However, there is the risk of a reversal next week depending on the actions and outlook of the Fed.
AUDUSD has sold off sharply again today, marking its sixth consecutive day of losses as the reversal from the test of the bearish trend line continues. Price is now back firmly below the .70 level putting focus on a reversal back down to the .6865 level next.