Euro Could Fall Against Aussie

Yesterday”s Trading:

The euro dollar on Tuesday restored 61.8% from a fall from 1.1397 to 1.1216. The euro strengthened after US stats on durable goods orders came out. The stats were worse than expected and the value for February was lessened.

Orders for durable goods in March were up 0.8% against a forecasted 1.8%. February”s value was dropped from -3% to -3.1%. Without accounting for the defence industry, orders were down 1.0%, whilst a growth was expected of 0.4%. The previous value was reassessed from -2.1% to -2.3%.

After an update of the maximum, the euro/dollar by trade close in the US was back to 1.1285.

Market Expectations:

Trading in Asia saw the Australian currency at the centre of attention, with it weakening against the dollar by 120 points due to inflation data. Deflation in Q1 was a surprise for most and it gave real credence to the likelihood of an RBA interest rate drop.

The fall in the rate of the Aussie has the ability to force down the rates of other currencies against the USD. Taking into account that the euro against pound is still under pressure and the US Fed will keep their rate unchanged, I”ve come up with two different scenarios. The main one is for a fall in the euro though.

Day”s News (EET):

  • 9:00, German March import prices and Gfk”s April consumer confidence;
  • 11:30, UK preliminary 2016 Q1 GDP and service sector business activity in February;
  • 13:00, UK retail sales according to CBI in April;
  • 17:00, US incomplete housing sales in March;
  • 17:30, US oil reserves for week ending 23rd April;
  • 21:00, Fed interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The euro is receiving support from the euro/Aussie in Asia. The wallaby is down throughout the market after the publication of Australian inflation data. The euro/dollar is trading around 1.1302. The euro/pound is trading in a sideways.

The 45th degree and the balance line are looking to be decent levels of support for the bulls and from these they will need to switch into attack. The daily stochastic has flipped up and the CCI is crossing the -100 level downward. There are signs of a euro strengthening on the horizon.

The technical picture between the old timeframes is contradictory, so before the FOMC meeting I”ve got two different scenarios. For me though, I reckon the euro will fall to 1.1255.

Source:: Euro Could Fall Against Aussie

About the Author
Alpari was founded in 1998 and is one of the world’s leading Forex brokers, offering clients a full package of the most modern financial instruments and technological solutions for online trading and investment. According to data from Finance Magnates, Alpari has been one of the largest Forex brokers in the world for a number of years. The trading turnover of the Alpari companies in 2014 was 2.5 trillion USD. Today Alpari is the world’s largest MetaTrader 4 Forex broker. The first half of 2015 saw company branches offering their services to over one million clients from over 150 countries in the world. Alpari clients have access to over 50 currency pairs and an extensive range of other instruments. The company offers the use of three trading platforms for computer and mobile applications for use with iOS and Android. Alpari is a member of international organizations such as The Financial Commission (Hong Kong) and CRFIN (Russia). Bonuses: the Alpari Bonus Program was launched in 2014 and allows clients to independently change their conditions for working on the financial market: reduce commission, save money on swaps, improve conversion rates and much more. Read More about Alpari HERE or you can visit their website direct by CLICKING HERE..

Related Posts

Leave a Reply