Euro and Pound Strengthening on Referendum Day

Posted On 23 Jun 2016

Previous:

Expectations for yesterday”s bottom rang true. The euro/dollar restored from a 1.1236 minimum to 1.1337 (1.1316 target). The euro/dollar and pound/dollar lifted before results from a survey from Opinium came out showing a rise in Brexit supporters. Due to this, the euro/dollar crumbled from 1.1337 to 1.1269. After more new survey results were published, the euro/dollar shifted the maximum to 1.1349.

Market Expectations:

All eyes are on the UK referendum today. The contradictory Brexit surveys from May are not letting trades run smoothly (I”m not talking about intraday trading). Tomorrow after the results of the voting are out we will see attention switch: this time attention will once again be on the US and the Fed rates.

The voting will take place until midnight EET. I don”t think it”s worth making a forecast today on the day of the referendum. I have marked out only a 1.1294 – 1.1375 price range in which I expect the euro to fluctuate until the preliminary results of the referendum are out.

Day”s News (EET):

9:00 – 00:00, UK referendum;
9:45 – 11:00, European indices for business activity in the manufacturing sector and service sector for France, Germany and the Eurozone;
15:30, US unemployment benefit requests for week ending 18^th June;
16:45, US preliminary business activity index in manufacturing during June;
17:00, US new housing sales in May and CB”s leading indicator index for May.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1236, maximum: 1.1316, close: 1.1296.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro bulls managed to bring the rate to 1.1337 without force whilst the Opinium survey had yet to be released. The euro is now trading for 1.1343 dollars. The growth slowed around the 67^th degree. Due to the UK referendum I haven”t made a forecast.The road to 1.1368/75 is open on the hourly. I”ve marked out 1.1294 as a support.

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Source:: Euro and Pound Strengthening on Referendum Day

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