On Thursday the tone was set by the GBP after the BoE had convened. The Bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. Their asset purchasing program was also left as was at 375 billion pounds. The pound strengthened throughout the market and then weakened since the MPC discussed the introduction of measures to stimulate the economy; measures expected to be introduced in August. The euro/dollar rose to 1.1164 and then stabilised at 1.1115. The 1.1140 calculated target was reached.
Today is Friday. There”s only Mark Carney”s speech which stands out today. The pound/dollar had shifted yesterday”s maximum from 1.3472 to 1.3475 by 7:27 EET. We could see a rise before the next BoE meeting. Yesterday”s pattern isn”t great for a euro strengthening, but if we take a look at how the pound”s been getting back to its feet, I”ll risk it and say we could be looking at a rise of the euro/dollar to 1.1176.
Day”s News (EET):
- 11:30, UK construction completed in May;
- 12:00, Eurozone definitive June CPI and May balance of trade;
- 15:00 Carney to speak;
- 15:30, US June CPI and retail sales, NY Fed”s index for business activity in manufacturing for July;
- 16:15, US industrial production for June;
- 16:30, CB”s May index for leading indicators in UK;
- 17:00, US preliminary consumer sentiment for July from Michigan university.
Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1102 (current Asian), maximum: 1.1176, close: 1.1150.
Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
The euro/dollar has jumped to 1.1164 after the BoE met. The rise stopped near 112 degrees. After a correction, the pair spent several hours at 1.1115. The euro is slightly up in Asia. I”ve risked in my forecast going for a revival to 1.1176. Next week from Tuesday onwards we can target 1.1230 and 1.13.