On Monday the euro/dollar spent the day in a 1.1374 – 1.1419 price range. The euro was consolidating underneath the LB. The dollar was hanging on to its position after Friday”s weak NFP on expectations that wage growth in the US will continue and the Fed will raise rates another two times this year. Judging by the futures for the rates, the Fed will put their rates up one more time, but no earlier than September.
The euro/dollar is trading close to the daily trend line. This is why the euro isn”t falling. For the euro to start weakening against the US dollar, the sellers need to strengthen below 1.1355. A rise of the quotes above 1.1420 will see the euro return to 1.1485. The economic calendar is empty today, so keep an eye on cross pair movements and that of stock indices.
Day”s News (EET):
9:00, German industrial production and trade balance data for March;
10:15, FOMC”s Dudley to speak;
11:30, UK external trade data.
The euro/dollar has found itself a a rest point at the 90th degree. This level isn”t an important support, so I reckon the price will shift towards 1.1345 (112 degrees). As I already mentioned above, if the sellers don”t manage to strengthen below 1.1355, the rate”s fall will move to 1.1280 (D3 line). Any prolonged fall will be cancelled by a close of the hourly candle above 1.1419.