Expect the Unexpected as BOE Gov. Carney Speaks Today

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming the opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

Daily TF.

The daily timeframe has not seen much of a change recently; however a reminder will not hurt. Daily demand at 1.34770-1.35557 is currently capping price to the downside, with supply above at 1.37342-1.36890 capping price to the upside.

A break above the supply area just mentioned could force price to test the S/R flip level at 1.37931, conversely, a break below the demand area mentioned above, would likely see price testing oncoming demand seen at 1.33995-1.34385. We favor the former to happen as we are still trading within a much larger demand area seen on the weekly timeframe at 1.34770-1.36771.

4hr TF.

Chart one below shows how price faked out above the original ascending triangle, and then pushed hard to downside, seeing price trading within the triangle once more, a nice fakeout north has been seen here!

Chart 1:

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen around demand (1.33995-1.34298) at 1.34368.  This demand area will more than likely see some sort of reaction due to its location seen to the left.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) seen at 1.36955 just below supply at 1.37235-1.37005 are set here since this level remains untouched, meaning unfilled orders are likely still set around this area.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are visible below the minor resistance 1.36666 at 1.36625, this level has proved valid in the past, but still needs to be confirmed due to a spike/wick (circled) seen above resistance, which may have consumed most of the sellers originally there.Do be on your guard with the sell orders above; the higher-timeframes are currently indicating that higher prices may be seen this week (Weekly demand: 1.34770-1.36771).

Chart two is follow on from chart one above, showing all price has done is continued forming the triangle around the round number 1.36000.  Again, similar to the last analysis, price will likely break the triangle to the upside and then retest it, before advancing towards minor resistance at 1.36666.

A snippet from yesterday’s analysis, just in case anyone missed it:

Price still remains capped between demand below at 1.35036-1.35312 and supply above at 1.36666 (minor resistance). A break above this supply could see price testing oncoming supply at 1.37235-1.37005; conversely, if price breaks the demand area (levels above) below, price could very well hit demand at 1.33995-1.34298.

Chart 2:

Quick Recap:

A small fakeout north was seen out of the ascending triangle seen on the 4hr chart, however, all price did was essentially expand the triangle rather than break it. Price is very condensed within the triangle at present, a break to the upside is highly expected, which will see our P.A confirmation sell order set at 1.36625 get triggered.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.34368 (SL: 1.33926 TP: Dependent on how price action approaches the zone) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.36955 (SL: 1.37270 TP: [1] 1.36666 [2] 1.36000) P.A.C:1.36625 (SL: 1.36810 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level).

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

A quick reminder of the higher timeframes from the last analysis is always good to help keep the bigger picture in mind. The weekly timeframe shows active sellers around the base of weekly supply at 1.76290-1.70490 coming into the market. The daily timeframe shows sellers are now pushing down from supply at 1.70410-1.68880 into the first likely trouble area seen at an S/R flip level (1.69210) just below.

On the 4hr timeframe, pro money sellers clearly had enough liquidity to push price south to around the minor support level at 1.69431 after breaking the huge round number 1.70000. However, notice that the move down was not exactly flowing with selling enthusiasm, it was more compressed, meaning pro money may have been entering small buy orders into the market around there while price was dropping (thus clearing sellers out for a possible rally higher), once the selling pressure dries up around this area, price will be free to advance to either the round number just mentioned above, or the decision point area at 1.70320-1.70233.

Price is now temporarily capped between acting resistance at the round number 1.70000, and minor support below at 1.69431, we still favor a break to the downside at the moment with all things being considered.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen at 1.67610 just above demand at 1.67378-1.67583. A pending order is valid here due to the momentum away from the demand area, indicating orders may be left unfilled here.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.68000 at 1.68038. A reaction may be likely here because of the way pro money used this level to rally prices higher with force, a quick change in direction like this likely indicates pro money activity, thus, all of their orders may have not been filled at that time. The reason a pending order is not used here is because pro money, on a regular basis perform deep stop hunts around big figure levels (1.68000), and these tails/wicks can be huge sometimes, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above minor support (1.69431) at 1.69482. A reaction north is likely to be seen here, however we are currently seeing higher-timeframe supply being hit on the weekly timeframe at 1.76290-1.70490, hence the need for a confirmation buy order, rather than a pending buy order.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just within the decision point supply area (1.70320-1.70233) at 1.70241. A pending sell order is valid here due this being the last decision point seen before pro money broke the round number 1.70000 to the downside meaning unfilled order may be left there.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A bearish reaction on the higher timeframe supply areas (Weekly: 1.76290-1.70490, Daily: 1.70410-1.68880) are still being seen, whilst the 4hr timeframe shows price is trading within the round number 1.70000 above current price, and minor support below at 1.69431. Price will likely break the support area just mentioned, however a rally in higher prices may be seen to either the round number just mentioned, or even the decision point level seen at 1.70241 (which is where we currently have our pending sell order located) before a break south is visible.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.67610 (SL: 1.67345 TP: [1] 1.68000 [2] 1.69000 [likely to be changed, depending on price approach]). P.A.C: 1.68038 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). 1.69482 (likely to be set at 1.69176 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.70241 (SL: 1.70352 TP: [1] 1.70000, subject to change depending on how future price action unfolds) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

AUD/USD:

Daily TF.

There are currently active sellers seen within daily supply at 0.94468-0.93758, however this selling activity could be short lived. The circled wick to the left of the chart shows where the majority of sellers in and around this daily supply area may have been consumed, so be on your guard for a possible bullish reversal, and exit positions if price on the lower timeframes indicate to do so!

4hr TF.

The sellers are taking no prisoners on this timeframe, a beautiful reaction around the highs (circled shown on chart one below) at 0.94613 was seen, and price has currently consumed the last (demand) decision point area at around 0.93894, which was where the ‘decision’ was initially made by pro money to form the higher high in the first place.

A retest of the decision point level just mentioned is currently taking place, at present there is little stopping price from hitting demand (D/S flip area) below at 0.93186-0.93345.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen at 0.92231 just above demand at 0.92037-0.92203. It would be too risky to set a pending order around this area, since deep spikes into this demand zone have been seen (levels above) possibly consuming the majority of buyers in the process.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are visible just above the round number 0.93000 at 0.93025. We require confirmation of this level because previous price action has warned us deep tests both north and south happen on a regular basis, hence the need to wait for confirmation rather than getting stopped out time after time through lack of patience.

• The pending sell order (Green line) set at 0.94447 around the high 0.94613 (marked with a circle), the first target set at 0.93894 has been hit, and the second target is seen below at 0.93436.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Chart 1:

Quick Recap:

Sellers have been seen trading in and around possible weak daily supply at 0.94468-0.93758, while on the 4hr timeframe our sell order is still live at 0.94447, and is presently showing a nice profit. Sellers have recently consumed an important decision point area at 0.93894, and at the time of writing shows very little stopping price from dropping even further to at least the demand area at 0.93186-0.93345 where our second take profit level is sitting (0.93436).

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen with current price action. P.A.C: 0.92231 (SL: more than likely will be at 0.91984 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.93025 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.94447 (Active – 1st target hit) (SL: 0.94667 TP: [1] 0.93894[2] 0.93436). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

Chart one below shows how price broke the round number 102.000 to get to the ‘possible’ decision point area at 102.096, where a nice little reaction was seen.

Below on chart two, a large triangle formation has been spotted coupled with the round number 102.000 within; the decision point area mentioned above has been removed as this has likely been consumed already. It is very difficult to tell which way this triangle will break as the higher timeframes are not giving much information regarding possible direction.

If price breaks above, we will likely see a test around the decision point area at 102.367, conversely, a break below could see price dropping to within demand at 101.427-101.660.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen deeper within demand (101.427-101.660) at 101.542. A pending order is valid here since pro money are frequently seen testing deeper in confirmed demand areas such as this, for active buyers.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are visible at 102.980, deep within supply (103.055-102.742), this area may well appear to be weak now, but the way price reacted at the circled area within supply indicates pro money activity, meaning sell orders may be left unfilled there, so a pending sell order is permitted.
• Near-term pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 102.367. A pending order is valid here since this is the area where pro money made the ‘decision’ to take prices lower into demand (101.427-101.660), unfilled sell orders were likely left there in the process.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Chart 1:

Chart 2:

Quick Recap:

The decision point area marked up on chart one got hit, and more than likely consumed. A large triangle formation has been spotted shown on chart two, with a break either side possible at this moment in time. A break above could fill our pending sell order at 102.367 which is a very important area, conversely a break below could see our pending buy order getting filled deep within demand (101.427-101.660) at 101.542.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 101.542 (SL: 101.389 TP: 102.000 but may well change if the market sees any new developments) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.980 (SL: 103.108 TP: 102.117, but may well change if the market sees any new developments) 102.367 (SL: 102.458 TP: Dependent on how price action approaches this area). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

EUR/GBP:

Daily TF.

A bearish reaction is currently being seen around the daily supply (D/S flip area) at 0.80348-0.80576, will the buyers have any strength to fight the selling pressure seen here? The weekly timeframe seems to think so, as price is seen trading deep within weekly demand at 0.79596-0.80299, so a break above the daily supply area just mentioned is likely to happen.

4hr TF.

Supply at 0.80647-0.80583 has been hit; this supply area is quite a risky level to go short off of due to the weekly timeframe showing price trading within weekly demand (levels above). A nice bearish reaction however could still be seen here, but nothing drastic is expected, as pro money likely know we are in higher-timeframe weekly demand, and they will no doubt attempt to take advantage of this.

Price is temporarily capped between the supply area just mentioned above at 0.80647-0.80583 and acting support below at the round number 0.80000.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• A pending buy order (Green line) has been set at 0.79580 just above demand at 0.79405-0.79552. The rationale behind this is because buyers have likely consumed the majority of the sellers lurking around the round number 0.80000 likely clearing the path for higher prices. A small retracement will possibly be seen to collect more buyers for a rally higher, thus triggering our pending buy order.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) under the S/R flip level 0.81403 at 0.81393 is an area where a reaction is likely, however there were too many wicks north seen marked with arrows, indicating sellers are drying up, thus, the need to wait for more confirmation.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just under supply (0.80869-0.80771) at 0.80752. Confirmation orders were used here because price is trading around a weekly demand area (0.79596-0.80299), which means price could easily consume this supply level as the higher timeframes usually overrule the lower timeframes.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (0.80647-0.80583) at 0.80293is now active. Considering the higher-timeframe location seen on the weekly chart (Weekly demand: 0.79596-0.80299) , the sellers will need to consume the majority of the buyers around the 4hr demand area below at 0.79405-0.79552; a pending sell order can then be set awaiting a possible retracement.

Quick Recap:

Our P.A confirmation sell order set at 0.80293 was triggered recently around supply at 0.80647-0.80583.  We may likely see a bearish reaction here possibly to demand below at 0.79405-0.79552, but do not expect it, as price is currently trading within weekly demand at 0.79596-0.80299, and as most of us know, the higher timeframe usually overrules!

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79580 (SL: 0.79368 TP:  [1] 0.80000 [2] 0.80583 [May change if any new developments in the market are seen]) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.81393 (SL: Will be likely set at 0.81564 TP: Will be likely set at the round number 0.81000) 0.80752 (SL: likely to be set at 0.80900 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level) 0.80293 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: likely to be set at 0.80648 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level).

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

Technically, price has not changed much on the 4hr timeframe since the last analysis. We have recently seen price consolidating around the  4hr S/R flip level at 1.07266, with a breakout north of this small consolidation being seen, only for price to push hard back into where price was originally consolidating.

It is not looking too promising for the buyers at the moment even though we are in weekly demand at 1.05609-1.07372. If we see a break lower, price will likely test the round number immediately below at 1.07000.

As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, price could drop hard towards daily demand at 1.05883-1.06779, and then see a bullish reaction; the beautiful thing about this though is that price would never leave the confines of the weekly demand area, so this is something we possibly need to bear in mind In the near future.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above the S/R flip level (1.07266) at 1.07325 is now active. Buyers will need to confirm this level by consuming the sellers around the high 1.07759 marked with an x, a pending buy order can then be set, awaiting a possible retracement.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 1.08975, within supply (1.08907-1.09047) just below the round number 1.09000. A pending sell order is permitted to be set here since the sellers confirmed this area from the previous confirmation sell order that was originally set at 1.08876 by consuming the majority of the buyers situated in and around (which was) demand at 1.08142-1.08330 (Seen on Thursday 19th June daily analysis).
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen within the decision point supply area (1.08251-1.08164) at 1.08226. Pending orders are valid here due this likely being the work of pro money, the momentum out of the zone is only caused by traders with big accounts, and when pro money move the market, all of their orders here were unlikely to have been filled, hence a pending order being logical here.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Price is still seen consolidating around the 4hr S/R flip level at 1.07266, where we currently have a P.A confirmation buy order active, which is not looking too promising at the moment. Judging by recent price action, we will likely see a decline to the round number 1.07000, if price fails to hold there, we are very likely heading for daily demand at 1.05883-1.06779.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are no pending buy orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.07325 (Active-awaiting confirmation) SL: likely to be set at 1.07152 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.08975 (SL: 1.09059 TP: 1.08330 [May change if any new developments in the market are seen]) 1.08226 (SL: 1.08357 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The Sellers have recently broken the ‘possible’ decision point area at 0.89283 consuming any of the buyers left around that area. Sellers quickly ran into trouble around demand at 0.88973-0.89168 as buyers have begun to show interest, nevertheless, this demand area appears weak due to the amount of touches it has seen, so a break south is very likely at the moment.

Overall, price remains capped between the low of the mini range above at 0.89643 acting as temporary resistance, and demand below at 0.88973-0.89168.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the daily S/R flip level (0.88501) at 0.88533. This level needs to see some confirming price action before any entry is placed in the market, due to their being no logical area for a stop loss order.
• Near-term P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen within demand (0.88973-0.89168) at 0.89029, just above the round number 0.89000, as price may retrace to demand to collect unfilled orders deeper within this area.

• The pending sell order (Green line) visible at the base of supply (0.90381-0.90033) just above the round number 0.90000 at 0.90063 still remains active. The first target has been hit at 0.89168, we are allowing our final position to run, giving price room to move and hopefully hit our final target at the daily S/R flip level (0.88501).
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The ‘possible’ decision point area at 0.89283 has now been consumed south, which is a fantastic sign for our current sell position above at 0.90063. Price is currently seen trading within demand at 0.88973-0.89168, which appears weak, we also have a P.A confirmation buy order set within here at 0.89029, which will very likely fail if it is triggered. Price will likely consume the demand area just mentioned and begin making its way down to oncoming demand at 0.88656-0.88816, by this time we will begin moving our stop very close to current price action.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.88533 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.89029 (SL: likely to be set at 0.88784 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: (Active – 1st target hit) 0.90063 (SL: 0.90412 TP: [1] 0.89168[2] 0.88501) P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment).

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Daily TF.

This daily supply area at 1331.13-1318.24 is becoming a little concerning at the moment, there has been no positive bearish close seen, and the tails currently seen forming indicate that buyers may well be too strong for any of the sellers there.

4hr TF.

A nice tail/spike (marked with an arrow) has been seen below demand (S/D flip area) at 1314.49-1309.37, which may have possibly consumed/stopped out most of the buyers that were situated there. A further rally up into supply at 1331.13-1327.42 is likely to happen as pro money may not have enough liquidity to drop price all the way to the next demand area which is currently seen below at 1284.88-1280.74. If price were to break above this supply area just mentioned, we would likely see a test of oncoming supply at 1342.46-1337.02 which could in fact  help facilitate a nice fakeout of the daily supply area at 1331.13-1318.24, but only time will tell.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen within demand (S/D flip area… 1284.88-1280.74) at 1282.82. We have set a pending buy order here due to the fact there was a decision made here (marked by the black horizontal level, when decisions are made by pro money, they may be unfilled buy orders left there, hence the fact we have set our pending order there.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (1258.57-1265.27) at 1268.91. We are permitted to set a pending buy order here as the buyers have consumed sellers within (which was at the time of writing) supply at 1293.47-1285.52, as per the previous confirmation buy order originally set at 1266.00 (See Thursday 19th June for details).
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the supply/decision point (1331.13-1327.42) at 1325.90. A pending sell order was set here because this area is deep within daily supply (1331.13-1318.24) and the momentum away from the area indicates unfilled orders may well be left there.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows sellers are currently struggling around daily supply at 1331.13-1318.24, while on the 4hr timeframe a decision needs to be made. Price will either have to consume and break supply at 1331.13-1327.42, or consume and break demand below at 1314.49-1309.37.

We however, favor the latter, because we are presently trading in and around in higher-timeframe daily supply (levels above) If this does indeed happen, our pending sell order set at 1325.90 may well be filled as pro money may perform a deeper test of supply above at 1331.13-1327.42 to help fill the liquidity requirements (buy orders to sell into) for the overall sell off.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1268.91 (SL: 1264.30 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) 1282.82 (SL: 1275.12 TP: Dependent on approaching price action). P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1325.90 (SL: 1332.71 TP: Dependent on approaching price action).   P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

Source: Thursday 26th June: Expect the unexpected as BOE Gov. Carney speaks today.