With Europe at a crossroads, investors are looking for clues about the future of the domestic economy. In the month of February, financial market participants will be glued to the economic data for signs of life in a moribund economy that is still struggling to regain momentum.
February 1: European Commission Growth Forecasts
February starts off with a bang, as the European Commission releases revised growth forecasts for the euro area economy. The outlook on the Eurozone and European Union has improved in recent quarters, but the general trend remains weak. The Commission’s forecasts will be monitored closely by the financial markets.
February 3: Eurozone Retail Sales (December)
On February 3, the European Commission’s statistics branch will report on December retail sales, an important proxy for consumer spending. Retail receipts rose 2.3% in the 12 months through November, and are expected to rise 1.8% year-over-year in December.
February 6: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (February)
Sentix GmbH will release its monthly consumer confidence indicator on the first Monday of the month. The monthly gauge is based on a large sample of financial analysts and institutional investors, and is therefore seen as an accurate measure of investor sentiment.
February 7: German Industrial Production (December)
On February 7, Europe’s largest economy will report on industrial production, a broad measure of factory output. Germany’s rate of industrial output rose at an annualized 2.2% in November. A similar uptick in December will raise confidence in the economic outlook.
February 8: German Trade (December)
Germany’s Federal Statistics Office will release official trade data on February 9. As an export-oriented economy with a large manufacturing base, Germany’s trade figures are closely watched by the financial markets.
February 10: German Inflation (January)
Final readings of Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) and harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) will be released on the second Friday of the month.
February 14: German Fourth Quarter GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production (December), ZEW Survey (February)
From an economic data perspective, there’s a lot to love about Valentine’s Day. Headlining the releases is Germany’s preliminary report on fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The German economy expanded just 0.2% in the third quarter, official data showed.
Separately, the European Commission’s statistics branch will report on industrial production for the month of December.
The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) will also release its latest sentiment surveys covering Germany and the broader euro area.
February 15: Eurozone Trade (December)
Investors looking for a holistic picture of the euro area’s 2016 trade accounts will find it on February 15 when the European Commission reports on imports and exports to and from the region.
February 20: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (February), German Producer Inflation (January)
Reports on Eurozone consumer confidence and German inflation will keep investors busy on January 20, paving the way for a highly active week in the markets.
February 21: Eurozone and German PMI (February)
Markit Group will release a deluge of manufacturing and services PMI for Germany and the Eurozone on February 21. The reports will be used to gauge the performance of the regional economy in the first quarter.
February 22: German IFO Business Climate (February), Eurozone Consumer Inflation (January)
The CESifo Group will release its closely watched indicator of business conditions in the final week of February. Separately, the European Commission will issue January inflation data for the 19-member Eurozone.
February 23: Revised German Fourth Quarter GDP
The German government will post revised fourth quarter GDP data on February 23. GDP is one of the most closely watched data releases because it is the broadest measure of economic growth available.
February 24: German Consumer Inflation (February)
On February 24, Germany will issue preliminary inflation data for the month of February, a more volatile release than the final reading several weeks later. Investors will be keeping tabs of both the CPI and HICP rates.
February 27: Eurozone Business Climate, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Economic Sentiment (February)
The month comes to an end with a deluge of Eurozone sentiment indicators covering the business, industrial, service and consumer segments. The data will provide fresh insights on the health of the euro area economy through the lens of business leaders, industrial managers and consumers.
Source:: February Outlook: Euro Edition