Final Trading Days Of 2019 Underway

USD Recovers Off Lows

The US dollar has had a quiet start to the penultimate trading day of 2019. The USD index trades around 96.49 last, with price posting a mild recovery off last week’s lows, though still look vulnerable to further downside. Looking to today’s US session the key data focus will be the Chicago PMI which is due to have ticked up last month.

Messy Start for The Euro

EURUSD has had a choppy start to the day, posting moves in both directions over the start of the European session. Flows remain light today given that many traders are still away on seasonal holidays ahead of the New Year.  This week the market will receive a raft of Eurozone member PMIs which will drive early price action in the single currency. EURUSD trades 1.1198 last.

GBP Rallies At The Open

GBPUSD kicks off the week on a firm footing. Trading 1.31118 last, price is rallying strongly back above the 1.3014 level. Optimism ahead of the UK leaving the EU on January 31^st is keeping price well supported. Final PMI readings for last month will be the key domestic data focus this week.

SPX500 Just Off Highs

Risk assets have started the week a little softer with the SPX500 continuing to retreat from last week’s new record highs.  While the market remains optimistic over US/China trade negotiations, some hesitation remains as the next round of talks is yet to be confirmed. Global manufacturing data will be closely watched this week and could impact risk flows if we see further negative prints. SPX500 trades 3238.73 last.

JPY Up, Gold Flat

Safe havens have had a mixed start to the week with gold a little weaker against USD while JPY has been firmly higher. Weakness in USD at the end of last week is keeping the near term outlook positive for safe havens though any rally in equities this week will cap upside. USDJPY trades 109.11 last. XAUUSD trades 1512.98 last.

Oil Holds Near Highs

Oil prices have started the week in a subdued fashion too. Light holiday trading is keeping flows stimied here as traders await the fuller return of the market across the week and into next week. However, with some tier one data releases over the week as well as the inventories reports, there is still plenty of room for volatility. Crude trades 61.62 last, sitting just off the highs posted last week in response to news of a further drawdown in US crude stores.

Loonie Looks Limp

USDCAD has started the week in the red though is still holding above the 1.3068 support level for now. The rally in crude over recent weeks, combined with weakness in USD, has seen heavy selling in the loonie, which looks vulnerable to further losses from here.

AUD In The Green

AUDUSD has started the week on a positive note with price rallying strongly back up towards overnight highs. Optimism around US/China trade talks is keeping sentiment well supported here. Chinese manufacturing data will be on watch tomorrow and is expected to have increased last month which should help keep AUD underpinned. AUDUSD trades .6995 last.