On Thursday, the release of British data on retail sales for July showed an increase of the indicator by 0.2% against the pessimistic forecast of -0.3%. By lunchtime, the pound grew 100 points against the rest of the market, almost reaching the first rising target, but by the evening, after the release of US retail sales data, it lost more than half of this growth – the US retail sales added 0.7%. As a result, the pound closed the day with a growth of 34 points.
Thus, the convergence on the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart still worked, and the likelihood of a further decrease due to the worked convergence increased. But for the price, convergence only worked out with a minimal change, growth can continue to the next target level of 223.6% Fibonacci (1.2230). But there are no external prerequisites for this yet – good construction data is expected in the United States today: the number of bookings of new houses in July could grow from 1.25 million to 1.26 million, the indicator of issued permits for the construction of a new house can show growth from 1.23 million y/y to 1.27 million y/y. As a result, we are waiting for the implementation of the main scenario – price consolidation in the range of 1.1986-1.2032. The target range is formed by Fibonacci levels of 1.1986-1.2032.
On a smaller four-hour chart, the price develops between the balance land MACD lines, the Marlin oscillator indicates growth – here the situation is neutral.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com