Forex News Trading Events 24th -28th November

Hey Everyone,

I’ve put together some analysis of this week’s Forex news events, which I hope will give everyone a good understanding of how I’m viewing the market for this week.

This week’s “high impact” news events that I will be looking to trade are as follows;

Monday 24th November 2014

EUR – German IFO Business Climate – 09:00am
Figures are expected to be released marginally weaker than previous levels, this data point alone or the slight deviation to the downside usually isn’t a particularly market moving event. However what we’re looking for as traders is for that negative sentiment surrounding the EUR to continue to grow, especially given that we have further news events coming from the Eurozone later in the week that are forecast to be negative and add further selling pressure to the Euro, whereby we see the potential for EURUSD to fall to 1.20.

Tuesday 25th November 2014

USD – Prelim GDP – 01:30pm

Figures here are expected to be slightly weaker than previous levels, bearing in mind that US data has had a tendency to surpass expectations recently. Having said that even if the GDP data falls short of forecasts one negative data point isn’t going to change the big picture; which is a strong dollar. We will therefore be looking at trading the EURUSD pair going onto and throughout the week.

Thursday 27th November 2014

EUR – German Prelim CPI – All day

This is a pre-cursor to the main event of the week, figures here are anticipated to be released at 0.0% however if we get a negative figure we could witness allot of selling pressure on the Euro as the market knows that the ECB’s entire focus is on inflation. If inflation doesn’t start showing signs of growth or if levels start falling into negative inflation this will be a firm indication that the ECB will have to start considering QE imminently, this is what the market wants and the popular opinion is that this is what will get the economy growing however we know that there are some strong protests coming from the German camp but every time we get commentary from the ECB or a statement from Draghi it seems that the ECB are drifting unavoidably to that conclusion.

Friday 27th November 2014

EUR – CPI Flash Estimate – 10:00am

This is the primary event that I will be looking to trade this week, figures are expected to decline from previous levels where by forecasts are that we will get 0.3% against the previous level of 0.4%, if we do get 0.3% or lower I would expect EURUSD to break 1.23 and beyond. This week there are two ways to trade the Euro; if you are willing to take the risk you can position yourself prior to the events and simply short the currency however if you are more risk adverse you’re going to want to sell into any Euro rallies so view any gains made by the currency as a good opportunity to get in and start selling it back. Ultimately I expect the data coming out from the Eurozone to be negative this week and consequently the market will sell off the currency as it anticipates further action from the ECB, if however we get positive data, it isn’t going to change the bigger picture which is that fundamentally the Euro is going to continue weakening especially against those stronger currencies like the Dollar.

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