Forex News Trading Strategy for the 11th – 15th of July
While the market continues to find it’s way in the aftermath of the pro “Brexit” vote in the UK we have quite a few events on the calendar for this week, including rate decisions from two major central banks.
On Tuesday we have the inflation report hearings in the UK, however with the current situation it is difficult to predict any market reaction to this event.
Wednesday we will see the latest rate decision, statement, and policy report from the Bank of Canada. The BOC is expected to remain on hold, however the recent deterioration in economic data could see downgrades to current growth forecasts
Australian employment figures kick off a busy Thursday where a poor showing could shift the market focus back to the fundamental picture. The AUD shrugged off the latest RBA statement that mentioned expectations for continued low inflation, and left the door open for more policy easing. The AUD has been support by inter-market factors that began prior to the “Brexit” vote in the UK.
Later on Thursday we will see the BOE’s first rate decision since the vote to leave the EU last month. Forecast have been all over the board ranging from a hold to a 50 bps cut. General consensus is for a 25 bps cut according to both Bloomberg and Reuters. No matter what the decision, we are likely in for a wild ride.
To finish off the week we will see the latest CPI and retail sales data out of the US. Overall CPI and the core prints are expected to come in at 0.2% for the month. While the PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the market tends to react more to the CPI print. Overall retail sales are expected to drop off a bit to 0.1% for the month, while the core is expected to come in the same as last month at 0.4%. After a big beat on the jobs report, continued market uncertainty, and the outlook for more weakness in European currencies, any positive growth will likely keep the greenback supported.
Other Forex news trading events taking place this week can be found here: Forex Factory Calendar.