Forex News Trading Strategy for the 18th – 22nd of July
The main fundamental focus this week will be on Thursday’s ECB meeting where the central bank is expected to hold rates steady and keep their current QE measures unchanged. Investors will focus on the comments and tone of ECB President Mario Draghi during the post decision press conference.
Monday is likely to be a fairly quiet day with little in the way of economic data. We did however see the latest New Zealand CPI data miss the mark which will likely keep the NZD pressured heading into the surprise intra-meeting economic assessment set forThursday. The market is already interpreting the announcement of the assessment as dovish.
Tuesday brings the latest CPI data from the UK where the y/y print is expected to come in at 0.4%. The German Zew Economic Sentiment will follow shortly after where consensus is for a decline to 8.2 from last month’s print of 19.2. Later during the Tuesdaysession we will see the latest GDT print. Fonterra si forecasting another decline in dairy prices which would be more bad news for the NZD.
Wednesday is the release of the UK Jobs Report where the Claimant Count Change is expected to a change of +4.1K, earnings are forecast to come in at 2.3%, and the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady.
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories will also be closely watched Wednesday as the last report showed a decline in Crude Inventories, however build ups in both gasoline and distillates kept the crude market under pressure.
As mentioned above, the ECB and RBNZ will highlight the Thursday session. The ECB with its scheduled interest rate decision and press conference, and the RBNZ with its intra-meeting economic assessment announced last week. We will also see the latest Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a regional report from the US, along with Weekly Jobless Claims.
Finally, Friday starts off with a slew of PMI data from Europe with Manufacturing and Services PMI’s due up for France, Germany, and the EU. We will also see Manufacturing PMI data from the UK. Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data will close out what should be a fairly interesting mid-July week.
Other Forex news trading events taking place this week can be found here: Forex Factory Calendar.