Friday 17th April: European Open Briefing

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock market: Nikkei down 1 %, Shanghai Composite gained 2.05 %, Hang Seng rose 0.60 %, ASX lost 1.15 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1198 (unchanged), Silver at $16.24 (-0.25 %), WTI Oil at $56.24 (-0.85 %), Brent Oil at $63.46 (-0.60 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.888, UK 10 year yield at 1.598, German 10 year yield at 0.085

News & Data:

  • Japan’s Big Companies Raising Pay By Most In 17 Years — Nikkei
  • WSJ’s Hilsenrath: Fed Shies Away From June Rate Hike
  • Global Rush To Join China’s Infrastructure Bank Pushes US & Japan To Speed Up Trade Talks — BBG
  • Russia Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Rouble Has Become More Or Less Balanced — BBG
  • Nabiullina: Stronger Rouble May Let Bank Of Russia Cut Rates — BBG
  • Fed Vice Chair Fischer: Exchange Rates Tend To Overshoot — BBG
  • Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis warns that liquidity is drying up in Greece

Markets Update:

It was very quiet overnight, with no data releases and little news. However, we have a good amount of tier-1 data ahead, which will bring us a volatile end of the trading week. In the EU session, the UK will release their employment figures, followed by Euro Zone inflation numbers half an hour later. In the US session, the US and Canada will publish their latest inflation data. Canada will also release the retail sales figure for last month.

Dealers report that selling from momentum funds pushed the USD/CAD lower to 1.2180, but buying from macro funds then led to a small bounce back towards 1.22. Overall, the pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near-term. Keep an eye on oil prices, as a further rise could also accelerate the strengthening of the Canadian Dollar. Decent selling interest reported at 0.7820/30 in AUD/USD, while bids from corporate names are expected at 0.7750. Macro funds are said to have buying interest in the 0.7720/25 region.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales (0.7 % y/y)
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account (€29.4bln)
  • 09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change (-29.5k)
  • 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate (5.6 %)
  • 09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings (1.8 %)
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI (1.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Core CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US CPI (0.3 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)
  • 13:30 BST – US Core CPI (0.2 % m/m, 1.7 % y/y)
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI (0.5 % m/m, 1.0 % y/y)
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Core CPI (0.3 % m/m, 2.0 % y/y)
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales (0.2 % m/m)
  • 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (94.0)
  • 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Expectations (87.0)

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