Friday 25th July: Daily Technical Outlook and Review.

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The sellers at this point in time seem to have broken the weekly demand area at 1.34760-1.36314, as a result, price has dropped into the next weekly demand area directly below at 1.32940-1.34847 (Stacked demand).
• The daily timeframe shows that the sellers have pushed below the daily demand area at 1.34760-1.35265. and price has now tested the daily demand area below at 1.33984-1.34397.

Current price action on the 4hr timeframe is beautiful! Look at that reaction off of the 4hr demand area at 1.33984-1.34404! This is also a very important area on the daily timeframe with daily demand being seen at 1.33984-1.34397.

As mentioned above, we have just entered into a big weekly demand area at 1.32940-1.34847, so higher prices are naturally going to be expected. The first trouble area (supply) we see for the buyers on the 4hr timeframe is around the 4hr D/S flip area at 1.34760-1.34943, however we expect this level to break due to the aforementioned higher-timeframe location.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• The pending buy order (Green line) seen just above demand (1.33984-1.34404) at 1.34434 is now active, so do keep an eye on our first take-profit level at 1.34760.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the 4hr decision-point area (1.35714-1.35609) at 1.35596. The reason a pending sell order was allocated here is because this is where pro money (on this timeframe) possibly made the decision to sell price into (what was) the 4hr demand (1.35018-1.35375) area at the time.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a decision-point area (1.35286-1.35211) at 1.35194, as we believe this area to be good for a bounce at the very least, notice how this was the area pro money sellers likely made the decision to break the round number 1.35000, meaning there may very well be unfilled sell orders still there.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Price has reacted beautifully off of 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404 which filled our pending buy order set at 1.34434 in the process. The first trouble area of supply we see is around the 1.34760 level, so do be aware of this.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.34434 (Active) (SL: 1.33942 TP: 1.34760 [may be subject to change]) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.35194 (SL: 1.35319 TP: Dependent on price action approach) 1.35596 (SL: 1.35768 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Sellers are showing much more interest within weekly supply at 1.76297-1.67702, could a move down to the weekly demand area at 1.66917-1.67939 be in order?
• A break below the minor daily S/R flip level at 1.70597 has been seen. Sellers appear to be pushing south at the moment with the next trouble area on this timeframe seen around the daily S/R flip level at 1.69712.

The pound is currently dancing around a VERY important round number level at 1.70000, we expect a little manipulation here from the big boys as they know (and we do) there are millions upon millions of orders just waiting to be triggered here, or stopped out L

If we see a bullish reaction here, the path ahead is relatively clear. The two wicks marked with arrows resemble likely supply consumption meaning if we are indeed correct, price could shoot up to the next round number above at 1.71000 at the very least.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the round number 1.70000 at 1.70058.  A pending buy order has been placed here since a nice reaction will more than likely be seen at a big-figure level such as this. Our stop will be wide enough to cope with any deep tests, so we should see some profit from this trade if/when price reaches this level.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 1.72000 at 1.71943. We have placed a P.A confirmation sell order here simply because these psychological levels are prone to deep tests/spikes, so sometimes it is better to wait for that all important confirmation.

Quick Recap:

Price is presently trading around the big-figure level 1.70000; manipulation from the big boys is expected! If a bullish reaction is seen, be prepared for a rally up to at least the next round number above at 1.71000.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.70058 (SL: 1.69446 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: 1.71943 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The weekly timeframe is still depicting consolidating price action with the upper limits being seen at 0.94600 and the lower at 0.92046, however price is now trading around the aforementioned upper limit at present, could a push higher be seen?
• Buyers and sellers have been trading within a small range on the daily timeframe, daily supply being seen above at 0.95425-0.94852 and a low below at 0.93208. Once we see a break of either of these areas, we will likely have more idea on possible short-term direction.

In the last analysis, we reported that upon a POSITIVE break above the high marked with a green flag at 0.94550, we were likely going to trade the retest. As we can see a positive break above the aforementioned high was not seen, but price is now seen trading around the original 4hr decision-point level at 0.94408 and currently showing bullish P.A (look at them tails)!

The sellers should be well and truly cleared above the aforementioned high now with that long wick that reached a high of 0.94694. So, price should be relatively free to close above the high (level above). If this does indeed happen, we will, as mentioned above be certainly trading the retest, the R:R is just too good to resist!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above a decision point area (0.93795-0.93945) at 0.93967. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is simply because the aforementioned decision point area is where pro money buyers (on this timeframe) likely made the decision to push prices higher to the 4hr decision point level at 0.94408, meaning there may be a possibility of unfilled buy orders still lurking there.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775.  The reason for placing a P.A confirmation buy order here rather than pending buy order is simply because we were trading just above a daily demand ‘buy zone’ at 0.92046-0.92354, meaning pro money could very well just ignore this level completely and trade deeper into the aforementioned daily demand area, so, confirmation is the order of the day!

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (0.95425-0.95096) at 0.95052. A pending sell order is placed here due to this being an area where pro money was interested in before; see how close price came to the supply area? (Levels above), this indicates possible strong supply (selling pressure), so the next time price visits we can expect some sort of reaction.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A positive close above the high 0.94550, so no retest trade has been executed yet. A long wick (0.94694) above the aforementioned high has been seen which possibly cleared the path north, so a positive close above will likely be seen soon, and then we can consider entering on the possible retest.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.93967 (SL: 0.93773 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: 0.92775 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.95052 (SL: 0.95467 TP: Depending on price approach)P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The weekly chart shows buying pressure is being seen from the long-term weekly support at 101.206, a positive close below this level has yet to be seen.
• Buyers and sellers have been seen trading within a medium-term range now for about two months (Resistance: 102.713 Demand: 100.747-100.967) now. If we see a positive close below the aforementioned daily demand area, is this the end for the buyers? Not quite. A break below would likely see price trading down to daily demand at 99.562-100.247 where active buyers are quite possibly lurking. What would this look like on the weekly timeframe if we did indeed see a reaction at this daily demand (99.562-100.247)? Our guess is it would look like a carefully-planned fakeout, which would no doubt give pro money lots of liquidity in the process.

Can you believe that! Price did not drop down two more pips to fill our pending buy order set just above the 4hr decision-point area (101.187-101.276) at 101.292.

Price is doing exactly as expected it would (except from filling our buy order of course)! The circled area at 101.516 likely consumed the sellers around the 4hr D/S flip area at 101.400-101.465 thus clearing the path up to at least the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754. Once, or indeed if we get a close above the high 101.595, we will be attempting to trade the retest up to the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754.

Conversely, if pro money has not got enough sell orders to buy into around the aforementioned high, we may very see a decline back down to the 4hr decision-point area at 101.187-101.276 to collect the much-needed liquidity for a stronger push north.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point area (101.187-101.276) at 101.292. The reason a pending buy order has been set here is because this remains an important area as this is the likely where pro money buyers made the ‘decision’ to push prices higher above the D/S flip area at 101.400-101.465, making this zone a magnet for a first-time reaction.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (102-191-102.104) at 102.074. A P.A confirmation sell order was used here purely for the simple fact we are trading around a higher-timeframe weekly support level at 101.206 meaning we may see a small reaction, but nothing to write home about, hence the need for confirmation!
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the decision-point level (101.754) at 101.733. We have not chosen a pending sell order here for the simple reason, price could very well ignore this area, and continue on higher due to the amount of touches this level has seen in the past.

Quick Recap:

Price is currently seen trading around the high 101.595, if a break above this is seen, we will likely trade the retest and target the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754. Conversely, if pro money does not have the required liquidity for a push higher just yet, we may see a drop back down to the 4hr decision-point area at 101.187-101.276 which will hopefully fill our pending buy order set just above at 101.292 this time!

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 101.292 (SL: 101.166 TP: Dependent on price approach)P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.953 (SL: 103.317 TP: Dependent on price approach)P.A.C: 102.074 (SL:  likely will be set at 102.214 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 101.733 (SL: likely will be set at 101.859 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The weekly chart shows the sellers have nearly reached the weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623. Any short orders currently in the market should now be carefully monitored.
• A break south has been seen below daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206, price should be relatively free now to hit the next daily demand area below at 0.78117-0.78533, however, expect the possibility that price may rally to the 0.79751area before hitting the aforementioned daily demand area below.

A break above the round number 0.79000 has been seen, and a rally north up to the 4hr decision-point area at 0.79277-0.79170 followed as reported may happen in the last analysis.

We still do expect a bearish reaction from here, as the 4hr demand area directly below at 0.78862-0.79048 has very likely been consumed. Essentially, what this may mean is price is free to hit the 4hr demand area even lower at 0.78602-0.78320, what great R:R this trade would give! However, traders should be aware that directly above the 4hr decision-point area (0.79277-0.79170) there is a minor 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79358. Price could very well push above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area to this 4hr S/R flip level, this would effectively stop out the majority of the sellers who have set their stops too close, thus giving pro money buy orders (once the stops are hit, the orders will now be buys) to sell into.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a supply area (0.79795-0.79684) at 0.79651. The reason for a pending sell order being set here, rather than a P.A confirmation sell order was because this area looks very hot for a first-time reaction. Notice how price faked above the S/R flip level at 0.79679 then dropped back down, there is very likely unfilled sell orders still lurking around this area, hence the need for a pending sell order.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below a decision-point area (0.79277-0.79170) at 0.79143 is now active, so do keep an eye on our first-take profit level at 0.79000.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Price is now seen trading within a 4hr decision-point area at 0.79277-0.79170, a bearish reaction is expected from here, but we have to take into account price may fake above this area to a 4hr minor S/R flip level above at 0.79358 before a sell off commences.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.   P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.79651 (SL: 0.79828 TP: Dependent on price approach)0.79143 (Active) (SL: 0.79313 TP: [1] 0.79000 [2] 0.78602). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• At the time of writing, buyers and sellers are currently seen trading between weekly demand at 1.05715-1.07008, and weekly supply above at 1.09592-1.08133.
• The sellers are very likely all consumed on the daily timeframe around the daily decision-point area at 1.07508-1.07293. Price is now free to rally to at least the daily S/R flip level above at 1.08277, but do not forget pro money may require liquidity and reverse price back down to daily demand at 1.05874-1.06680 before much higher prices are seen.

Again, very much the same as the last analysis, not a lot technically has changed. For most of the week, price has been seen consolidating within the purple area (1.07611/1.07074), and a break out of this zone is yet to be seen.

We still very much believe price will push south out of the aforementioned range and break the round number 1.07000. Over the last few days, the outlook on this pair remains relatively unchanged:

At the time of writing, price action is seen trading between two round numbers, 1.08000 and 1.07000. Focus just for a moment on what the daily timeframe is telling us. We have broken above an important area (daily decision-point area at 1.07508-1.07293) meaning it is very possible we will hit the next important area, however before this, we may see a decline in price to daily demand below as pro money will no doubt require liquidity for the next move up (for all daily levels, see above). So with this in mind the round number 1.07000 will likely see a break before the round number 1.08000 above does.

Once, or indeed if a break below the aforementioned round number is seen, the most likely area for a bullish reaction is the ignored 4hr supply area, which is now demand at 1.06749-1.06578. However if there is not enough  sell orders for pro money to buy into to fulfill their order book requirements around this area, they will no doubt keep selling back down to 4hr demand at 1.06041-1.06312 where they will likely manipulate price to collect more liquidity (sell orders). So, upon the break of the round number 1.07000 keep a watchful eye on the two areas just mentioned.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.07000 at 1.07047. The reason a P.A confirmation buy order was set here is simply because a pending buy order would be too risky as (on this timeframe) there is no logical area for a stop loss order to be placed.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 1.08000 at 1.07952. The reason a P.A confirmation sell order was set here is simply because a pending sell order would be too risky as (on this timeframe) there is no logical area for a stop loss order to be placed.

Quick Recap:

With the daily timeframe action suggesting price may see a decline to daily demand at 1.05874-1.06680; it is very likely the recently-formed range (1.07611/1.07074) and the round number 1.07000 will be broken south on the 4hr timeframe before the round number 1.08000 above does. Once/if a break lower is seen, we can likely expect to see buying pressure around the 4hr swap area at 1.06749-1.06578, if not, a bullish reaction will very likely happen around the 4hr demand area below at 1.06041-1.06312.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders seen within the current market environment.  P.A.C: 1.07047 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.07952 SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Price is frustratingly consolidating above weekly demand at 0.85664-0.88124, and has been for several weeks now!
• Heavy buying into daily supply at 0.90372-0.90042 has been seen with the sellers beginning to show a little interest now.  If we see a break above this area, a likely push up to oncoming daily supply above at 0.91556-0.90985 will possibly happen.

The wicks currently seen in the 4hr supply area at 0.90372-0.90148 were likely rejection wicks as a neat-looking bearish engulfing candle was later seen. However, these rejection wicks also, in our opinion consumed sellers too.

Price dropped from the aforementioned 4hr supply area to around the 0.90063 level, the buyers are presently showing interest here as they have pushed price once again up to the 4hr supply area just mentioned. We still believe price will decline to the round number 0.90000 for a second retest. Our reasoning behind this is because those wicks just mentioned above have likely consumed most of the sellers around the 4hr supply area as mentioned already (levels above), so this level is prone to a break north. However before pro money can do this, they will very likely need liquidity in the form of sell orders to buy into, and with the majority of the sellers already consumed around where price is currently trading at, the next best place on this timeframe is seen below at the round number (level above). Nonetheless, expect the round number level to see a small breach below thus allowing pro money to stop out any traders long with their stops too close, and trap any breakout sellers below. All of this will give pro money the needed liquidity (sell orders) to buy into.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the round number 0.90000 at 0.90018. We would not normally set a pending buy order around a round number level such as this; however the first retest seen of this level gives us confidence to place an order such as this.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (0.89540-0.89614) at 0.89624. A pending buy order was placed here because this area remains an important decision-point area where the buyers ‘decided’ to trade above multiple highs, and the round number 0.90000.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows the sellers have begun showing a little interest within daily supply at 0.90372-0.90042. The 4hr timeframe shows three prominent wicks (marked with arrows) within 4hr supply at 0.90372-0.90148, which likely consumed a lot of sellers. We very much expect price to drop to the round number below at 0.90000 before higher prices are seen.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.89624 (SL: 0.89523 TP: Dependent on price approach) 0.90018 (SL: 0.89928 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

XAU/USD (GOLD)

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The weekly timeframe shows the sellers are beginning to show some interest around a (not-so-great) weekly supply area at 1391.97-1328.04. Price is currently capped between the aforementioned weekly supply area and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level at 1244.08.
• Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are seen trading between a beautiful-looking daily supply area at 1344.91-1333.55 and a daily ignored decision-point level at 1292.52.

It was reported in the last analysis that if price broke below the 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77, we would likely see price trade on down to the ignored decision-point level at 1292.52 where bullish activity would be seen.

Price has done exactly that, we are hoping price will not hit the 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77 as this would be our first take-profit level if our pending buy order had been filled at 1293.77. If a small pullback does happen and we do get filled on our order, we will watch this pair carefully as we are seeing selling action out of weekly supply at 1391.97-1328.04 meaning this level could break very easily.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the ignored decision-point level at 1292.52 at 1293.77. A pending buy order is valid here since this level has been proven by the buyers who consumed the sellers around the high marked with a flag at 1313.66, making this area prime for a reaction when/if price reaches here.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A break of the 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77 has been seen, and price has shot down to around the ignored decision-point level at 1292.52 as expected. Our pending buy order set at 1293.77 was unfortunately not filled, if we see a small pullback and our buy order filled, our first take-profit level will be at the 4hr S/R flip level above at 1304.77, if this level is hit before our pending buy order is filled, we will likely remove the order as price could see an aggressive push to the downside.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1293.77 (SL: 1286.75 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.