GBP Bulls Refusing to Surrender Without a Fight

Never underestimate the resilience of the GBP bulls, their ability to creep up from underneath the woodwork and put up a fight to regain control is admirable. The GBPUSD just received a 40 pip boost following the announcement that UK Services PMI rose to an 8-month high in July. This followed Monday’s 50 pip upturn, after the United Kingdom’s latest Markit Construction PMI surpassed expectations.

The news that the UK Services PMI increased to an 8-month high will be domestically looked at favorably for several reasons. Firstly, the UK services sector remains the United Kingdom’s main GDP contributor, which means this release should bode well for the UK’s 3Q GDP. Secondly, the services sector employs around 80% of the UK labor force. This is encouraging for next Wednesday’s UK Jobless Claims. A lower UK unemployment rate is seen as a crucial factor behind the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates. According to BoE Governor Carney, a UK unemployment rate below 6% might influence the Central Banks decision.

The GBPUSD’s recent decline, which has included 12 days of losses out of a possible 13 trading days have certainly raised a few eyebrows. However, some patience is required here. It is important to bear in mind that due to the escalation of various political tensions which dominated the headlines throughout July, investors became attracted to safe-havens, such as the USD. Additionally, UK economic releases were low in volume. The UK data that had been released, included UK Mortgage Approvals rising more than forecast, alongside UK House Prices increasing by around an annualised 10%. The BoE have made no hidden secret lately regarding the Central Bank viewing the domestic housing sector as one of the largest risks to the UK economy. Therefore, it is acceptable for such news to have also contributed to the GBPUSD’s recent decline.

The majority of the United Kingdom’s other fundamentals have performed consistently impressively over the past year, as seen by the latest Construction and Services PMI. If tomorrow’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production data impresses, expect the GBP bulls to start collecting enough momentum to charge again at the BoE’s door, for further clarity regarding when the Central Bank aims to raise interest rates.

About the Author
Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at Forex Time (FXTM). He holds a BA (Hons)degree in Business Studies with Accountancy & Finance from the University of the West of England, Bristol, UK. In his early career, Jameel worked on a variety of projects in the Middle East, Europe and United States, which allowed him to develop a detailed understanding of banking, international finance and asset management. Later on he worked as a strategic research analyst for an international brokerage firm, where he gained invaluable experience in writing FX commentaries and fundamental analysis on distinguished financial websites.

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