US CPI In Focus
The US dollar has had a subdued start to the day on Tuesday. The USD index is continuing to stagnate below the 97.68 level. Looking ahead to today, however, there is the potential for volatility with the July CPI print due over today’s US session. A weak reading could cause a sharp move lower in USD. This may boost expectations of further easing from the Fed, while a better print could see price back above the 97.68 level.
EUR Rallies on USD Weakness
EURUSD has been a little higher over the session so far on Tuesday, benefiting from USD weakness. Price is once again looking to test the 1.1217 level which capped upside all of last week. Political events in Italy could impact EUR in the short term with the Italian government due to a Vote of no Confidence which has been called, the date of which will be set later today. This could result in a technocratic government being put in place, or snap elections if the vote is passed.
GBP Weighed Down
GBPUSD is trading in the green so far today also, though only slightly, With fears over the prospect of a no-deal Brexit continue to dominate GBP flows, price remains subdued near the 1.1987 2017 lows.Earnings and employment data yesterday was better than expected though saw only a mild bounce given the heavy negative outlook for GBP.
Equities Under Pressure Again
Risk assets continue to trade under pressure today. SPX500 is continuing its decline from above the 2908.55 level. With price having failed to hold back above the level, there is the risk of a fresh run down to the 2798.34 level again this week. For now, it seems that fears over the escalating trade war are taking priority over expectations of further central bank easing.
Safe havens have had a strong session so far with both JPY and gold trading higher as risk aversion takes hold once again. XAUUSD has now broken above the major 1522.75 resistance which had not been tested since breaking in 2013. USDJPY trades 105.15. Price is fighting to hold above the current 2019 lows of 105.03 for now. A deeper push in equities over the week will likely see this level give way.
Crude Rally Capped
Oil prices have been a little lower over the session so far in the wake of the wave of risk aversion weeping markets. Crude has fallen back below the 54.90 level which was tested overnight. Concerns over the demand outlook, in the face of the growing US/China trade war, are keeping crude capped for now. Looking ahead today, traders are waiting on the release of the weekly API report.
AUD Up, CAD Down
USDCAD has been higher today, despite a weaker USD, as weakness in oil, and the general risk-off tone of the day weighs on CAD. Price is continuing to rally off the recent 1.3207 lows. However, any weakness in US CPI today could put an end to the rally in the short term.
AUDUSD has been a little higher today, interestingly. While CAD has traded lower on oil weakness, AUD has managed to hold on. Currently, it’s fighting to get back above the broken .6760 level. The NAB business confidence survey, released overnight, improved to 4 from 2 over July. This might be offering some support so far today.