Payrolls mixed but unemployment rate falls to 3.9% – Intraday analysis 07-05-2018

Intraday analysis 07-05-2018 – Daily Forex Market Preview

The monthly payrolls report for April showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a seventeen and a half year low to 3.9%. This was stronger than the estimates which forecasted a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1% in March.

The U.S. economy was seen adding 164k jobs during the month which was below estimates of 190k. However, the payrolls report for March was seen to be revised higher to 135k. Wage growth remained muted, rising at a sluggish pace of 0.1%. The U.S. dollar was seen rising on the back of the broadly mixed but robust jobs report.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the day is relatively quiet. The day starts off with the German factory orders report. Economists’ polled expect factory orders to rise 0.5% on the month. This marks a modest increase from 0.3% seen in the month before. A rebound in the factory orders could potentially ease concerns of a possible slowdown in the economic momentum in the Eurozone.

Later in the day, the Swiss monthly inflation report is due. Estimates point to a 0.3% increase in consumer prices following an increase of 0.4% the month before. Other economic indicators for the day include the retail PMI from the Eurozone and the Sentix investor confidence report.

The U.S. trading session will see the FOMC members Bostic and Barkin speaking later in the day.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.198657): The EURUSD remained at the monthly lows, albeit with price action testing a fresh 5-month low on an intraday basis. The euro managed to pull back from the lows briefly to settle above the support level of 1.1934. This potentially indicates a rebound in price action in the near term. The lows formed on Friday also coincided with the Stochastics posting a higher low. The bullish divergence could be validated on a close above 1.1988 where minor resistance is seen. A breakout above this level could signal a move toward 1.2090 – 1.2070 level of resistance initially.

GBPUSD intra-day analysis

GBPUSD (1.3552): The British pound was seen trading subdued with price action seen testing the support level at 1.3530 on Friday. In the near term, we expect the GBPUSD to continue to consolidate around this level heading into Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. There is scope for the GBPUSD to correct to the upside as the 4-hour Stochastics oscillator points to a bullish divergence. The initial target is likely to be the resistance level which could act as dynamic resistance to the upside. To the downside, a break down below 1.3530 could signal a decline to 1.3500 round number support.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

XAUUSD (1317.41): Gold prices were seen consolidating around the 1311 – 1307 level of support with price action closing on Friday above this level. In the near term, gold prices could potentially push higher with the resistance level at 1325 to be the likely target. A breakout above this level could signal a further continuation to the correction. For the moment, the downside looks limited with any dips likely to be supported near the current price levels.

Check out the Orbex website for analysis updated throughout the day.