Intraday Forex Analysis 17th August

Australia’s wage report showed that the unemployment rate fell 5.3% in July. The decline came on a slight decrease in the participation rate. Data showed that the economy lost a net 3.9k jobs. This missed expectations of a 15k increase.

In the UK, retail sales jumped 0.7% on the month in July beating estimates of a 0.5% increase. The robust retail sales figures came amid a drop in real wages.

In the U.S., housing starts data showed an increase of 1.17 million. This was below estimates of 1.27 million but slightly higher compared to the previous month.

The U.S. dollar index was seen retreating following the strong surge during the middle of the week.

Looking ahead, the economic data for the day will see the release of the final inflation figures for July. Economists polled expect to see the headline inflation rise 2.1% on the year while core inflation rate is expected to rise 1.1%.

Canada will also be releasing the monthly inflation figures today. Headline inflation is forecast to rise 0.1%.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1382): The EURUSD currency pair closed with some modest gains on Thursday following the doji candlestick pattern that emerged the day before. Price action is indicating a potential turn around but with the failure to clear 1.1400, the risk is equally balanced. To the upside, EURUSD needs to close above 1.1400. The recent dip back to 1.1366 could signal a rebound toward 1.1540 resistance if the upside momentum continues.

USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.87): The USDJPY currency pair was seen closing bullish on Thursday. Price action remains trading sideways albeit drifting slightly lower. ON the 4-hour chart, the consolidation is seen taking place near the support and resistance level of 111.13 – 110.85 region. We expect the upside to potentially push the USDJPY currency pair toward 112.18 region. There is a chance that the currency pair could be forming resistance at this level which previously served as support. To the downside, the support at 109.45 remains a target.

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1176.73): Gold prices pulled back from fresh intraday lows on Thursday. Gold fell to new lows of 1160.32 before recovering to close at 1174. The momentum remains strongly bearish but comes at a risk of a pull-back. The retest of the recently breached support at 1211.50 – 1219.75 remains an ideal price level for a retest. Establishing resistance at this level could keep the momentum to the downside which is however likely to stall in the near term.