Investor Uncertainty Following Trump Talk

Trump Praises Economic Impact of his Presidency

Speaking at the Economic Club of New York yesterday, Trump praised the growth of the US economy.

In the comments made during his speech at the club luncheon, Trump said that we will continue to pursue policies that allow US firms to “compete and win”. Trump highlighted that over the course of his presidency, domestic manufacturers have created 600,000 jobs, while 7 million US citizens have been able to come off food stamps.

Talking to business leaders at the prestigious event, Trump said going forward:

 “We will be pro-growth, pro-American, and more is yet to come…You will see things, even in this room, you will be surprised to see. We have tremendous economic potential.”

More Trump Talk

The comments made were typical of Trump’s infamous style of speech-making, employing casual language and creating some confusion around the stats he cited.

Trump said that over the course of his presidency, the average American worker’s wages had risen by $10,000 per year. This would be an increase of $3000 per year from the $7000 figure given less than a month ago.

Trump cited a private economic research group’s report as the reference for his figures. However, the US Census reported that over 2018, average wages in the US were roughly unchanged.

Commenting further on the topic, Trump explained that roughly $2000 of the increase cited came from tax reductions made. However, industry analysts have said that the benefits from Trump’s tax reductions have amounted to less than $1000 for the average American worker.

Trump Praises Economy

Trump’s comments during the speech echo the words of a tweet he published earlier in the day.

Trump wrote:

Despite Trump’s praise of the US economy, the latest data released last month showed that growth in the US slowed to just 2% over 3Q. This is well below any record levels and down sharply from the 3.1% recorded in Q1.

Trumps Skimps on Trade Deal Comments

The main topic that traders were looking for Trump to discuss was the progress of US/China trade talks. More specifically, whether the two countries were likely to sign a deal at the APEC meetings in Chile on November 16^th/17^th.

However, traders were left disappointed as Trump offered no new insights. He commented only to say that his team was working on a deal. Trump did note, though, that he has decided to delay the autos tariffs he threatened on EU vehicles for a further six months.

Market Disappointed

In all, the speech was a fairly muted event. Trump refrained from shedding any light on the US/China trade negotiations, keeping uncertainty around the potential signing of a “phase one” trade deal this weekend.

The market reaction suggests that traders remain optimistic. However, they are a little more cautious that a deal is on the horizon.

Technical Perspective

The SPX500 printed yet further, new record highs yesterday on the back of Trump’s comments. The index rose to 3102.43. The upper line of the recent bullish channel continues to cap upside currently with momentum waning a little over recent days. For now, RSI continues to support the move and while we might see some retracement in the near term, further highs are likely while price remains above the 3021.82 level.