Dollar Starts Well
USD has traded mildly to the upside over the European morning on Monday though the index is still sitting off last week’s highs at 96.83 last. A quiet session is likely today given the absence of any tier one economic data. The main focus of the week for USD traders will be the FOMC meeting minutes due on Wednesday. The market is currently pricing in a .25% rate cut for the July meeting so traders will be keen to assess the meeting minutes for signs as to whether this perspective is still valid.
Euro Weighed Down
EURUSD a little lower today, weighed on by a stronger USD. For now, EURUSD remains above the 1.1217 level having briefly pierced below it last week. German industrial production figures came In lower than expected today which has not helped EUR’s case, keeping price in the red for now.
GBP Under Pressure
GBPUSD too is a little lower over early European trading on Monday as the pair remains subdued following the big sell-off last week. GBPUSD trades 1.2529 last, remaining above the 1.2484 support for now, though focus is on further downside this week. With no key domestic data today, GBP is likely to trade lightly across the remainder of the day.
Risk assets have started the week well with the SPX500 trading in the green over the first European session of the week. The SPX500 broke out to fresh all-time highs last week in response to optimism over a potential US-China trade deal. The market trades 2979.18 last, just off last week’s highs, though still supported at current levels, keeping the focus on another push higher.
Gold Up, JPY Down
Safe havens have had a mixed start to the week with gold trading higher against USD while JPY trades lower. Expectations that the Fed will ease in the near future is keeping gold prices supported. Although down off the recent highs, XAUUSD trades 1405.20 last, having found support at the 1391.61 level once again, keeping focus on further upside. USDJPY trades 108.45 last as price continues to fight to get back to the 108.78 level. The FOMC minutes later in the week should provide the main catalyst for price action this week.
Oil prices have had a slow start to the week with crude still capped by the 57.85 level for now. The OPEC production cut extension announced last week failed lift off, instead, causing a counterintuitive drop lower which has yet to be recovered. While below 57.85, focus is on further downside in the near term.
Commodity Currencies Down For Now
USDCAD is benefitting from weaker oil prices today, which are weighing on CAD, keeping the pair just above support at the 1.3070 level. Price has been testing the level over recent days and if we see a recovery on oil over the coming sessions, we are likely to move below. The BOC meets this week and while no change in monetary policy is expected, the market will be keen to see if the bank maintains the resilient tone we heard last month, which should keep CAD further supported.
AUDUSD has traded a little lower over the European morning following a rally overnight. AUD remains bolstered by expectations renewed efforts to deliver a trade deal between the US and China, Australia’s largest trading partner. AUDUSD traded .6985 last, still below the .70 level for now.